News Archive

Rebound In Grain Futures

This morning has seen a bit of firming in the November Bean Contract. The 880 level, although breached with a low of 878, held and we bounced back to the 890-893 level. I personally think we will spend a little time here in the 880’s digesting the trade. It is a short week though, with Columbus day here in US, so that should compress and moves. I think the targets below are the options strike prices, 875, 850 and then 800.

Similarly for Corn and Wheat, these higher bounces are most likely selling opportunities to take advantage of. The key is to not be […]

Lower Commodities Prices On Horizon

Good Morning,
I am writing this installment on Saturday Morning October third… Yesterday saw a clean sell off in the grain markets. Corn, Beans, Wheat futures all settled on their lows of the session, and in most cases new multi-week low settlements.
A couple things continue to weigh on these markets.

First off, is the size of the crop now being harvested. Informa came out with estimates of a 13.1 Billion Bushel Crop in the Corn along with a 3.3 Billion Bushel Soybean crop. And the harvest is still on going, so both of those could and should grow further.. The lone fear which had […]

Did you sell the Dow or the S&P at the Bottom?

This morning at 730 CST, stocks extended their losses, with the Dow looking at around 9350 level and the S&P down to the 1012 level.. In a classic, sell the rumor buy the fact, savvy traders profited off of panicked longs, or weak shorts who either puked their longs for losses, or more likely got short in the hole after the number… Literally in about 2 minutes after the number, the indexes had made their lows, but hung around down there long enough to make the weak shorts think they would eventually be all right…
Here it is 12:45 PM and the markets have almost […]

Friday Sell Off in the Grain Complex?

November beans indeed snapped below the 900 level, traded to a low of 895 1/2 and perhaps is now looking for a snap back higher, temporarily…I would be a buyer here with a stop market below.

It looks as if the stock indexes over did it this morning on the down side, with both the Dec Dow and S&Ps having a bounce rally off of their multi week low prints which came out this morning after the unemployment numbers were released. These markets are at the mercy of the puppet masters, the large funds with plenty of money to push the futures markets around, looking […]

Do the Large Trading Funds Control These Futures Markets?

Ok, so once again, this price action looks kind of iffy. A week ago, on Sep 24th, the Dec Dow contract had a high print of 9866, 140 pts away from the 10000 level..The SPZ had a high at 1075… today the Dec Dow printed a low of 9336 and the SPZ printed 1011, lol… over 60 handles in the SPZ and over 500 pts in the Dow..
Granted, this has been after a 6 month rally, but this price action shows how the markets go down 3 times as fast as when they go up.. This rule seems to hold true for all markets […]

Have we seen this year’s High in the S&P?

Just wondering how secure the jobs data is… I find it interesting that Thursday before the report, stock indexes move sharply lower and low and behold there is a worse than expected jobs report. The Dow is around 450pts lower from its recent highs, and the s&ps are also sharply lower.

Is this a natural correction after a 57 percent run up? yes, but I just have to question the timing and the market action which preceded today’s action.
I imagine all the markets will be lower across the board in sympathy with this action.

Overall, it will have an initially bearish tone to the […]

10% Unemployment or 17%— Which is it?

For years when the bond futures pits actually had live traders doing price discovery through open outcry, many large traders would only show up for the monthly unemployment day. Generally the bonds would break or rally violently usually a point or a point and a half depending on that number. There truly was nothing like standing in that pit or in that room at 7:29:55 right before the number was released.

A palpable feeling of anticipation, like waiting for a tidal wave to ride if you were a surfer… trade skillfully and you had a great opportunity.. trade stupidly, and you’d wonder how long you […]

Another October Correction?

Currently 225 pm CST, All the grains were in the red today, as we saw sympathetic moves with the outside markets… the Dow is below 9500, the spoos are down 20 handles at the 1030 level, gold is back below 1000 bucks and silver is down around 16.50, the only higher market is crude, hanging in there above the 70 dollar level, mostly due to yesterday’s surprising gas stocks shortfall.
So over all a day for the bears….

I honestly was surprised, after yesterday’s bullish bounce in the stock […]

Short Term Grain Move

November beans tried to rally, fell below the 935 level and have moved sharply lower below the 918 level…Dec Corn is below 340 and Dec Wheat is below 450.. Yesterday’s bounce up looks to have been short covering driven, and more of a technical bounce in the face of the fundamentals.’
Also we are watching the outside markets pull us down. Dow is looking like it will pierce the 9500 level… and the s&p’s are 18 handles lower at 1033…. Looks like a flush lower momentum could weigh across the board today.

Will the Dollar Hold Up against other Currencies?

Yesterday saw strong rally led by a drop in the dollar on a correction, a strong rally in the crude, fueled by a surprising drop in gasoline supply on hand, which fueled a rally in the grains led by soy oil. We also saw a nice short covering rally in the wheat at the end of the day as longer term shorts covered losing positions and forced Dec wheat above the key 450 level on the charts.

We had a nice intra day rally in stocks, and even though the indexes settled lower we recovered most of the earlier day’s losses.
As we speak, the […]