Wheat Vs. Beans Vs. The US Dollar

May 21, 2015 Written by Chris Robinson Corn: July corn settled up 5 cents at $3.65. New crop CZ settled up 4 ¾ cents at $3.82 ¾. Corn opened lower and traded sideways to higher in a narrow 6 cent range. Slow pre-holiday trade was the tone of the day. US weekly export sales were slightly better than expected at 32 million bushels. Corn talk remained focused on 1) near record crop planting progress, 2) NOAA’s longer term forecast for normal/above normal rainfall and normal temps through August and no prediction for high temps 3) managed fund short position of 130K contracts (650 million bushels). […]

New Crop CZ15— Grind Lower or a weather market waiting to be born?

It’s May 4th and the US corn crop is 55% planted. The Soybean crop is 13% planted and Spring Wheat is 75% planted. No doubt the US farmer wins hands down as the world’d most effecient and productive producers in the world. With less than 3% of the population involved in row crop production, they are taken for granted by the rest of the country and the rest of the world. To have prices sitting near 5 year lows for corn wheat and beans, it makes it that much more difficult for farmers marketing their crops in 2015. So far, it looks like the best […]

Is the US Dollar Bull bet the Widow Maker Trade for 2015?

For roughly 2 years, looking from June 2012 until July 2014, the US Dollar Index stayed boxed in a 5 cent range, supported at 80.00 with resistance at 85.00. 8-months ago, the tide turned. DXM15 quietly began its 8-month, 20 cent move. 25% in 8 months turned a lot of trend followers heads. Looking at the longer term chart, you can see how the contract took 7 months between October 2014 and July 2014 building a base at 80.00. As 2014 ended, a lot of folks lookd at the 10 cent rally from 80.00 to 90.00 and decided to finally get long. After a 12-1/2 […]

Crude Oil Bulls Looking for Reason to Be Long

CLM15 futures has had an interesting run. Between July 2009 and Jul 2014, for essentially 5 years, Crude was mired in an $18.00 trading range. the onlhy exception was January 2011 until about August of 2011. For those 7 months, bulls were sucked into thinking we were going to run back to $140.00. Between Augus 2011 and July 2014, roughly 3 solid years, we were stuck in a box. $82.00 to $98.00. Bulls couldn’t even get another $100.00 print to celebrate in this contract. 10 months ago, Crude began it’s slide. Every new low was met with another “expert’ touting the bottom was in place. […]