Did you buy dips in 2014? if you did, you are in a minority

As we head into the last 2 weeks of trade for 2014, where are we? We had 2 “corrections” in the S&P this year. February, we dropped 6 % to a low at 1712 from 1813. We then had a 10% correction between September 15th and October 15th… we dropped from 2014 down to 1813. If you had bought the Feb low and held it—- You’re up 367 points, or 21%. IF you bought the October 15th 10 percent correction down at 1813…. You are up 266 points in 2 months… or 15%….. December will most likely have mangers buying stocks to dress up their […]

5.2% correction is just noise-Despite the Financial Cable Folk’s Alarmist Talk

Reality Check: The high in the Dow futures was 17980 posted just 7 trading days ago… 7 DAYS! With the Dow at 18,000 the percentage moves are what matters—- NOT the Flat Number Change. I get so sick of the TV anchors playing up any thing less than 5% moves in the value of the Index. Anything less than that is just noise. The problem is 5% of 18000 is 900 points. That is just too much for these folks to wrap their heads around, i guess. Its’ 3rd grade math, but they consistently would rather talk about the number of points without providing any […]

Grain Producers and End Users: Corn and Wheat at 5 and 6 month highs

Corn: March Corn settled up 2 ¾ cents at $4.11 which is the highest settlement in 5 months. CH has now rallied an impressive 83 ½ cents between the contract low posted October 1st and today’s fresh 5-month high at $4.11. Funds bought another chunk today after beginning the week long estimated 254K contracts. Exports were 639,500MT. Yesterday’s announcement that the Chinese lifted restrictions on several GMO varieties was friendly. However, with a 2 billion bushel carryout, the final impact on corn burn remains cloudy at best. A private forecaster pegged Europe’s corn production down 9% which is supportive as well. CH has resistance on […]

NewCrop Corn posts a 5-1/2 month high

Corn: March corn settled down 6 ¼ cents at $4.07 ¾. Corn traded in a 10 cent range during today’s abbreviated holiday session. Tuesday’s 5-1/2 month high at $4.15 ¾ was not breached today for March corn. New crop CZ15 settled down 5 ¼ cents at $4.31 ¾. , after trading to a new 5-1/2 month high at $4.38 ½ right on the opening bell at 8:30 AM. That high marked a 74 ¼ cent rally from the contract low down at $3.64 ¼ posted October 1st. This pencils out to a 20% gain in value. Most technical traders still have the July4th gap at […]

Trend Lines in March Beans Give Bears and Bulls a chance to Take Aim and Fire

As the year ends, we have a convergence of two long-term trend lines. Above, there is a Resistance line going back to May of 2014.. That’s an 8-month old T-line in SH. Below there is a Support T-line going back to the Oct 1st Contract low. That’s 3 months old. Most technicians believe the older the t-line and the more sigfificant it is. Now Technical analysis is nice. However, if all you needed was technical analysis, there wouldn’t be any cab drivers in Chicago. AT best, it gives you a reason for entering the market. At worse, it gives you a security blanket to add […]

NewCrop Corn posts a 5-1/2 month high

Corn: March corn settled down 6 ¼ cents at $4.07 ¾. Corn traded in a 10 cent range during today’s abbreviated holiday session. Tuesday’s 5-1/2 month high at $4.15 ¾ was not breached today for March corn. New crop CZ15 settled down 5 ¼ cents at $4.31 ¾. , after trading to a new 5-1/2 month high at $4.38 ½ right on the opening bell at 8:30 AM. That high marked a 74 ¼ cent rally from the contract low down at $3.64 ¼ posted October 1st. This pencils out to a 20% gain in value. Most technical traders still have the July4th gap at […]