Harvest running at 17 % corn and 15% for beans as we chew through huge crop

This is a huge crop. Harvest is going slower because its so big. We are behind historical rates of progress for harvest at this time of year. Typically we don’t see a harvest low until we are at least 50% harvested. That looks like its going to be 10 days away. Right now it costs 6500 dollars to rent a rail car in the Dakota’s to move grain. That’s a huge basis to fight. So what’s a farmer to do? I’d sell into any decent rally. CZ rallied to 3.34. Any punch up to 3.45 to 3.50 would be a harvest miracle, in my opinion, […]

Unemployment below 6%

Nothing like hind sight trading to keep you humble. Yesterday it looked like the market might run down in anticipation of the Unemployment report today. Yesterday’s low missed a perfect 62% retracement of the 1,134 point rally from the August lows. I have to admit I thought we were going to take out that retracement yesterday and then test that 7-month old T-line. So much for having the big idea. In the end, my analysis from two days ago was the correct one. Another dip to buy. 16711 was a key 50% retracement. 16578 would have been the next target. Yesterday’s low came within 10 […]

Dow Index post an 8 week low. Finds some solace with Dr. Fibonacci

Dr. Fibonacci Says….. 16846 is the 38% retracement of the 6 week, 1,135 point rally which started on Aug 8th 6-month low down at 16145. Half way back, is 16,712. Thee levels are important, because every trader out there looks at them, even if they lie publicly and say they don’t. Remember, 172 points is a 1% move. If you are going to light your hair on fire and run down the street every time the Dow moves 200 points, I think you’ll be in a padded cell by Christmas , along with all of the talking heads on the financial shows. Their behavior is […]