Fed signals a possible return to “normal”

While the Fed raised worries with talk of raising rates in the future, should unemployment stay below 6.5%,  in the long run it might be the best thing for this market to normalize.
We have had interest rates near zero for 5 years now.  Flash back to 2009, March with the S&P at 666,  the Dow at 6500 and a complete liquidity crisis.
60 months later,  the indexes have more than doubled.  2013 saw 30% returns in the market,  while the “inflation” hedge ( long commodities and gold)  had a negative 30% return.

The S&P is in a nice channel upward going back to December […]

All Eyes on Employment figure at 730AM

We’ had a 6 percent down move in the SPH; We had a 7.9% down move in the Dow Jones. We got a bit of a bounce; that bounce got the bulls feeling better about things.
I have upside targets of 1775 and then 1789 in SPH if we continue to rally.  15740 and 15890 if we get the bounce in the Dow.
The initial  reaction to the number will be violent.  Its really a coin flip.

My own personal bias is there is another leg down so we get the full 10% correction lower;
Because of that, although I have a profitable long position, I […]

S&P Finds Support- For Now

The low on October 9th was 1633.  The record high was 12/31/13 at 1846.
Yesterday we finally found support at the 1740 level,  which was the 50% retracement. For now it  looks like we’ve stopped the bleeding lower.
That could change should 1740 fail on another test lower  Next stop below would be 1715 should that happen.

A lot of bears have sub 1700 in their sights.  That remains to be seen, however.   Friday’s unemployment number could be the catalyst for a test of that level,  or the flip […]