Dow Climbs the Wall of Worry: When will the “correction” come to roost?

Looking at a longer term chart of Dow Jones Futures  there are two trend-lines to consider.
The upper projects out to Dow 17,000 by the first week of January.  Wow.  That doesn’t seem possible or realistic, but that’s where the Trend line projects out towards.

Down below in the lower T-Line support doesn’t really come in until 15,500 to 15000.  Its really any one’s guess as to when the correction comes or how violent it will be.
I certainly am not professing advanced knowledge of any type.

However, just listening […]

Take profits on long SF13

The two dueling trend lines played out reasonably well.  Tomorrow its any one’s guess where SF14 heads.  After a 25 cent cleanse in the past 72 hours,  a lot of the folks who sold looking for the breakout below the support trend line, have now left blood on the field with this rally.  Now we are at the intersection of another trend line.  We spiked from 88 to 92 1/2 in the last 30 seconds of trade.  Felt more like shorts throwing in the towel than new longs adding  to […]

SF13 Bean Wedge Update

Today the lower trend line held.  Who knows what will happen tonight when the electronic market opens?  No one.
For now, we settled at 75, that’s 5 cent winner or $250.00 per contract if you bought against the 12.70 trend line intersect.

One case where a trend line performed as predicted.   We could still go below that trend line by 5 or 6 cents,   squeeze out all the week longs and then turn around higher and go challenge the upper trend line of that wedge.

Overnight, make sure you have your sell stops in place.  Also,  given that the low was 12.70 1/4, […]

Beans Dueling Trend-lines

There are two trend lines to watch in SF13.  Upper resistance is $13.00  Bottom support is 12.70, but a settlement below yesterday’s low at 12.69 would be a bearish signal.  As with all T-lines, there’s a possibility of getting chopped.
The sentiment is bearish.  Which is why I am more bullish than bearish.  I would love to sell SF at 1293 to 1299.
IF we settle below 12.69 that opens a door down 20 cents to 12.50.
This is the time of year it can get kind of thin and choppy.  Funds remain a massive long. Farmers have been selling off the combine.
There was […]

Trend line (S) in December Gold

Trend lines don’t  always work.  News Flash.   That doesn’t mean they are useless, in my opinion.
A trend line is just a graphic way to show potential support or resistance. Emphasis on potential.

Look at the example below in December  Gold.
Traders looking for a support level to buy against have been watching the trend line.  Going back to the July low at 1182.  The second point of intersection is 1251 posted on October 15th.

We are trading around that trend line today. 1274 is the intersection point.

The issue is,  if this trend line fails,  then what?  So you go to support at the […]

Take profits on Wheat/Corn Spread trade from 11/13/13

5 days ago on Nov 13 I suggested  buying wheat and selling corn.
That spread has moved 15 to 20 cents our way if you followed along.
I would take profits here on AT Least 1/3.
Look for 2.38 and the 2.44 as upside resistance on this spread.
For every contract in place,  you should have gotten at least 10 cents in your pocket.  10 cents is $500.00 a contract.

If you’d like to participate with me as a client. please email me at or call my […]

EPA Telegraphs lower corn usage

November 11, 2013

Written by Chris Robinson

Corn: December corn settled down 4 ½ cents at $4.22. CZ14 settled down 6 ¾ cents at $4.59 ¾, which is a new 3-year low and life of contract low settlement. For the week, CZ lost 4 ¾ cents, while CZ14 lost 8 ¾ cents. Corn opened higher and challenged the $4.30 level once again, but turned over and headed south in a dull grind through quiet trade. The exports were strong at 1.2 MT. This was above the average trade guess and was considered supportive of prices. 

Happy Friday: Buy gold; Buy Beans: Buy Dow and S&P puts

There’s a decent triangle formation in Dec Gold.  However, its dicey on the bottom.  If you look at the trend line,  a lot of technical traders got chopped up and head-faked with the settlement below that trend line.   News flash. Technical trend lines don’t Always Work… That doesn’t mean they have no value,  They simply give you milestones to step in and trade.  Managing the trade after wards is the real key.
Wednesday a lot of technical traders sold gold against that trend line when we settled below it.  Low an behold, we scream higher and chase those shorts out.
I have noticed (and I […]