USDA Bearish Beans, Corn, Supportive Wheat All in the face of Washington Drama.

New 3 year low in CZ; Beans drop 35 and are at $12.86; Wheat holds tight on increased feed usage this summer, but it looks to be under pressure potentially as well.

Funds remain short corn, short wheat and long beans;

I’ll be on Sirius Radio XM Channel 80 today as a guest to discuss this USDA report.

CER

USDA Monday at 11 AM CST

CZ 13 has a Trend Line Above which should give a good selling opportunity.
The USDA on Monday will be followed on Oct 11th with a supply and demand report.

The last 2 numbers were bullish for grains, especially beans, but we have seen little follow through after the first 24 hours.

SX has been stuck between 13.00 and 14.00 for the last 4 weeks.

Wheat seems to be trying to display independent strength but will be looking at Monday’s report for confirmation.

Finally the corn: $5.00 corn has not been […]

Stopped out of Gold for now

After risking 15 ticks looking to make 40 to 60,  we are out of the Gold long spec.

As harvest gets under way,  corn yields are better than expected.  Bean yields are still a question depending on the damage done post Labor Day with the dryness.
For now SX has support at 13.00 and CZ has support at 4.45.

We have a week before another USDA report and then 3 weeks before the October 11th S/D crop progress report.

I still have corn short positions on since 5.70 and 5.60, although w have taken about 3/4 off the table.
$1.00 plus profit.   For those still […]

Is this the break to buy in the Stock Indexes?

1) trade update. Still long 1 unit of gold futures w/ a stop below current levels.    We had taken some stop losses, but over a long weekend,  that’s something that must be done.

2) Looking at the Stock Indexes,  where is a good level to buy?  From the low tick at 14,651 on August 28th to the high tick last Thursday at 15,658, that was almost 1,000 pt rally in 16 trading days.    What happened since the market had time to digest ?  well  we fell almost 350 pts from that high to today’s low.    15,273 is a 38% retracement, while 14,150 is the 1/2 […]

If you missed buying Gold at 1308, Try again here at 1334

For speculators:  Consider buying a mini December gold at 1334.  We’ve had a sharp sell off here,
From another new source: I am cutting and pasting b/c its faster and gives a better explanation.
The reasons why gold is going down today are partly related to some trading drama that occurred with gold yesterday…
The December contract, the most actively traded gold contract, quickly plunged to a four-week low, tumbling from roughly $1,350 to $1,344.50 in about one minute. Behind the drop was a large sell order in gold futures contracts that tripped a circuit breaker and shut down electronic trading for 20 seconds.

-No Tapering: The “punch bowl ” gets re-filled;Dollar drops to a 6-month low; Stocks go to new all time highs

The Dow has now rallied 970 points in the last 12 trading days.  ON August 28th we were down at 4-month low 14,649.  As of this writing, Dec Dow is at 15,625.  Bon Appetite.

Its any ones guess where the high will be in the stock indexes in the wake of the Fed’s decision to keep Quantitative Easing Alive.  Every thing rallied across the board;  All except the US dollar, which broke sharply.

I see no reason to stand in front of this freight train in the stock indexes.  16,000 is the next milestone ahead for the Dow and 1750 in the SPY (cash S&;P).

[…]

Gold Gets 1/2 way back at 1308 with a 6 week low tick today testing the 1300 level.

When Dec Gold broke through the trend line at 1353 last Thursday.  There really isn’t good support until 1275- 1280  which was the August 7th low.   The high on August 28th at 1434 was spurred by the fears of war in Syria.  People sold the Dow and bought gold in the fear/ war spread.  That has been unwinding over the past 3 weeks.  With today’s action, we are smack dab in the middle of the recent 2-month, $250.00 rally.   At 1308 we have come back $126 of that $250. 

[…]

Tuesday 9/17 grain trade summary

September 17, 2013

Corn: CZ settled down 2 ½ cents at a 1-month low settlement of $4.54. CZ also posted a one month low at 4.53 ¼. Corn rallied in the overnight session on the 5AM release of the FSA numbers but rejected that action, trending lower the rest of the day. The FSA report came in at 3.573 million acres, increasing 162K acres from August’s estimate at 3.411 million acres. Planted and failed corn acres were at 91.428, increasing 2.657 […]

FSA gives grain bulls a 5AM shot in the arm

The FSA at 5 AM released the preventative plant acres adjustment. The USDA uses this data to project s/d figures.  They were increased for both corn and beans.  This is a non-event and won’t be completely hashed out until Oct. 11th USDA crop report.
Looking at the chart above, its a range trade, with 60 cent swings.  $3,000.00 a contract if you have the futures on.  After a 50 cent break I can’t get to excited about a 15 cent rally.  The acres for beans went to 1.687 vs 1.619 […]

15,511 is the Summer’s high ?

The old high in DZ futures was 15 522.  Today’s high so far 15,511.  In retrospect, it would have been nice to have bought it and sat with it.  The last trade we risked 100 pts on a sale last week on a sale, simply b/c I felt that it was over done to the upside.  Luckily we had stops and took losses.

This morning’s rally was largely credited to Larry Summers officially being out of the race for the next Fed Chairman.  How can any

I am not a big believer in flipping in and out of long/ short long / short positions. If […]