Thursday before the long weekend

With weather issues impacting grains and world wide events impacting gold and oil,  it might be the best strategy to get flat and then look at opportunity next week.  We have the Labor Day holiday Monday. A lot of folks are working today and then heading out for a 4 day weekend.

That is my first inclination.  There is too much uncertainty to be putting fresh positions on prior to the long weekend.

For the Sep Dec Corn spread sold at 27,   we covered those at 18 and 17 and were happy to take that profit. 
For the short futures position in CZ from […]

Volatile Grains

Corn: December corn settled down 5 ½ cents at $4.80 ¾.. Weather remains the main issue. One private forecaster cut its forecast for the second time in 8 days, down to 152.4 bushels per acre for a US average corn yield. Although we rallied Sunday night and Monday based on “hot and dry” fears, I found it interesting to hear bulls still calling for an early frost which would hurt corn. Since posting a 5-week high Monday at 508 ¼, CZ has fallen 29 cents in three days. All of these gyrations have been fueled by one thing and one thing only: the weather forecast. […]

Dec gold near June highs of 1426

Gold has reached a level where I would rather sell it than buy dips.  Despite the garbage going on in the Mid-east, (and there will always be something teetering on disaster in the mid-east, it seems)  I think at the very least I’d take profits on some longs and raise the trailing sell stops.  A settlement above 1426 opens up the door to 14.50 and then the may high at 1490.
The trend looks decent and I could see that happening. Make sure you raise your sell stops and sit tight.  It might help to turn off the TV so you don’t get too bullish […]

Sep/Ded Corn spread sale at 27/28 gives us an 11 cent profit

Last week I looked at the Sep Dec  Corn  spread which seemed to have bounced too far too fast.
If you sold that spread, cover at least 1/2 of it here with a 10 cent profit. $500 bucks a contract is a good way to start the week.

The stock indexes still seem over sold here to me.  All that talk in the last 2 weeks looking for a continued 30% correction was a gift to cover shorts.  I have no real opinion on the stock market for now. I could actually see us rallying back to the 15,300 level, setting us up for some type […]

GOLD BUGS: Here comes your $1400/oz

December Gold is what we’re trading now.  August is in delivery and I wouldn’t trade that unless you have the physical product.
December has the volume anyhow, so December is the new option I’ll be using.
High today 1397  Last 1395.  Last night’s low 1368.   What’s interesting is that gold and the stock indexes are both higher.  Typically people like to think that gold is the hedge against stocks, but that isn’t a hard and fast rule and it can haunt you if you get married to that idea.  AM Radio talk show hosts are entertainers,  not traders.  Gloom and doom prepper publications  sell gloom […]

Sep/Dec Corn Spread Head Hunting for the Shorts

CU/CZ Spread is not for the faint hearted.   We have Sep options expiring tomorrow.  Sep Corn has rallied 46 cents in the last 9 days.  We had been down below 4.55.  There were a ton of Sep outright 5.00 puts that have been run out of contention.   There were 5,000 more puts than calls in Sep.  In my opinion,  Come Monday,  we’ll re-establish the down trend we have been slugging through since September of 2012.  Since the June spike up to 6.10 we dropped 1.55 or 25% in value.

One […]

Good news from Euro Zone and China stops the bleed in Stock Indexes

At around midnight last night my phone went off w/ news that HSBC china index popped above 50 unexpectedly, signaling a recovery.

Based on this, and also on the fact that every item I read in the press and watch on the TV is bearish Stocks now,   I’d cover all shorts in this market and look for another opportunity in the coming weeks.

That is all for now.
CER

Dow moves 100 lower on comments that Fed “tapering” is likely

Minutes released today suggested that the Fed Governors are leaning towards favoring “tapering” of the current 85 billion a month in easing.
Sep Dow traded down to 14856.  Dec Dow traded down to 14776. 
For now,  move down protective sell stops and let the market do what it wants to do.

Sep Dow has now moved 744 pts from its high in the last 13 trading days.   That’s 4.7% off the top.   Sep  support comes at 14,751,  14621 and then 14,500. 

A 10 percent correction takes us down to 14,040.  A 20% correction takes us down to 12,480.

That would be like a two […]

CZ Short Update: If you sold this 40 cent rally you have 6 cent profit

If you sold this 40 cent rally,  right now you have a 5 to 6 cent profit. That’s only 250 to 300 bucks a contract.
However,  make sure you manage the position so that this does not become a losing trade ever.  Take some profits or lower you stop so that worse case its a push.

In SX we challenged the 1309 level an broke down to 1283. That’s a decent 20 cent break.  I’d be a scale in seller at 1311 to 1321  Look for those levels to give decent scalping opportunities in a volatile market.

The WZ=CZ spread has bounced back to 174 […]

December Corn Rally’s back 1/2 way.. Bull Trap?

CZ has bounced 40 1/2 cents in 4 days.   1/2 way back target is $4.87… Above that we get $4.97-$5.00
In my opinion,   this is just a technical correction  If you are a farmer,  sell cash grain into it.   If you have been short corn futures with me,  you should have taken some good profits and still be short from the $5.70 area.  Do you lift it and look to sell it again if we rally to 4.97?  If you do that, you don’t want to be left in the dust on a bull rally trap.   I’d have sell stops below $4.55 again  to re […]