Short Sep/ Long Dec spread finally rewards after 5 cents of heat

  • Posted on: July 24, 2013

First off,  yes; when CU/CZ rallied above 40, I took off 2/3 of the position. I really thought we could have a bounce to 50:  If you’ve been following,  you know I suggested this spread since first week in June. Roughly a month ago.
For the 1/3 I still have on, I  am not sure how low it could go. Best case would be from 28 over til 8 under.  That would be 36 cents more profit from here. If you are putting this bear spread on now, make sure you have 36/37 as a run and hid stop level.   Risk 10 cents to try to catch this next 36.
The August beans finished limit down today. Down 70 cents.  Due to the 13 cargoes of Brazilian beans which came into St. Louis today.
I have to think this puts pressure on all all long old crop positions.
Would you want to go home long over a weekend long old crop?  I don’t think so,  so Tomorrow and Friday could be ugly for the bulls.

That’s a bout it, I have to admit that I was worried enough to take off 2/3 of my position when it looked like we might go above 50.

I am glad I kept 1/3. That’s all I have to say about that.

CER