Maintain short September Dow futures against 15,500

Ok, lets start w/ short position in Dow Sep Futures:  In May 22nd  the high was 15448.  Three days later, the high was 15,438.  June’s low was 14,474 That was a 959 pt trough. a 6% “correction.

Today’s high was 15,433. Based on that action, and the fact that, after watching CNBC last night,  with so many “pro’s”  bullish… I continue to want to stay short.

If you don’t want the future’s margin risk then buy some 15,000 puts and 14,500 puts.   If you are long stocks, the time to buy your down side protection.

One thing I thought was interesting. Not hearing too much from […]

CZ13 Downward Channel

This downward channel  holds again for CZ.  I just don’t see if there’s a 60 cent bump due to a weather premium.  We have 2 weeks of  weather risk as Corn pollenates.  That’s it.  in 21 years I have seen more bizarre moves.  If we come in on a Monday after a weekend before the end of July, and the temps are 100 degrees and there’s no rain,,, then we can get that pop.

In my opinion, that’s the only thing that could stop CZ from continuing the slide […]

Dow at 15,200 is a sale

I wrote last Tuesday about my willingness to sell YMU here at 15,200.  Today’ s high is 15249. Last trade as I write this is 15239
Sell it here against the old high at 15,278  (essentially a 15,300 buy stop) 

Sell it .
Turn the machine off and I believe you could pocket at least  a 100 pt profit,  while only risking 70 to 150 pts.
15341 is next resistance… so we should be scale in sellers through this 100 pt range.

Scale in sell.  Put your buy stop in and forget about it.


CZ approaches 5.30 for a 1/2 way back rally sale

CZ has rallied from 4.90 up to 5.25 in 3 trading days.
my last buy stop was filled yesterday.

I would look to sell this rally in CZ . Today’s high so far was 5.24 1/2.   If we get to 5.28  I’d be scale in seller between 5.28 and 5.34.

 In my opinion, all this is squeezing out the weak shorts who sold CZ at 4.90 last Friday, and are now taking losses to satisfy the margin clerks.

I am a seller of SQ at 15.10 if we get there. We popped above a trend line and old restance at 14.66.
Lets see if […]

Gold Can Not Hold a Rally

After breaking over 200 bucks an ounce over 3 weeks, one would have looked for at least a 50% pullback. I had 1302 as a sell target and then 1331… August Gold could only manage an $88 rally over 3 days before taking another header here.  1215 traded last, but I have to imaging on Sunday night we take another run at 1200 and then the recent low at 1180.  Adjust your positions accordingly.

CZ settled below 5.00 for the first time in over 2-1/2 years.  While bulls argue the USDA is completely off base to the upside with the acres,  facts are facts. These are […]

Dow Futures give us a nice 160 pt trading range today

Earlier today I wrote about selling the June Dow futures at the 15,000 level.  Today’s high was 14,980.
If you were a scale in seller between 14950 or higher,  you have a nice profit on a day trade. Currently trading at 14,828 as I write this.  That’s 750 a contract on a mini.
It looks like a lot of people are going in to the holiday short the market.  The only problem I have with that logic is Thursday night or Friday morning, we could have a market gyration made worse by low volume.
We could very easily take a run back up to 15,000 […]

CZ Shorts Still In Place: Sell the Dow June futures at 15,000

If CZ settles below 4.98 I’d initiate new shorts to add to current winners.   A settlement at 4.98 or lower should open the door to a test of the next low at $4.60.

I believe that the June Dow has good resistance here at the 15,000 level.  Sell it with a reasonable buy stop, but keep it tight.  Up side maybe is up to 15,200… This 15,000 level is a good fulcrum. Nice emotional level. Gives the media something to focus on and therefore draws attention.

The only problem I have with trading stock indexes in July is that we are heading into August.  August […]


Maintain short positions from last 3 weeks or so.  Move your buy stops down at least another 30 cents and guarantee an addional $1500 per contract short.

CER 1:04 CST

Gold found support at 12.00 and is trading today at 12.50.  This AM we were stoppe out at 1200 and 12.25.. Currently I’d have a limit order to sell august gold around the 1300 -1302 level.  1302 would be a 50 % pull back from the recent $242 dollar sell off.

That’s about it for today.
Hope you all took profits on these short positions.