Gold Upside Target 1420 or 1491

August Gold on the weekly chart has retraced 25% of its 9-month, $625 dollar sell off as of today’s bounce.  Gold saw a 35% decline in value over this down move.    I am not sure if this is anything more than a technical rally. Some are blaming this on Bernanke’s comments.  I think its more like a lot of folks got short gold below 1300, had a $120 winner on the books, and are now heading for the exit before heading on vacation.

August is almost upon us.  That’s when most of Europe goes on vacation and a lot of US money mangers  slow down […]

If December Corn CZ settles below 4.90, we have another leg lower

Rain was less than desired in Iowa, but about 40% of the WCB and ECB got 1/2 inch to an inch.
Its a mixed bag, but we are on our lows. 
Funds lightened their short position as of last Friday in both corn and wheat.  I like owning corn puts and owning wheat calls,  looking for that spread to pop higher for at least 30 to 40 cents.

Today we trade weather again in the corn.  Looking at AG web posts,  it looks like if you post anything bearish about corn, you’ll be on a hit list.  Group think has a poor track record […]

Sep Dow Is Still A Sale in My Opinion

Barring 2 consecutive settlements above 15,500 in Sep Dow Futures, I’d remain short.
The cash Dow posted a record high yesterday, on the 18th at 15,589.

If you have followed me for any length of time, you know I like to fade popular opinion.  I have to think this weekend all of the Talking Heads across the media blitz field, will be talking about the new record highs in the Dow.

Will any one notice that we have rallied 9000 pts from the 2009 lows?  This morning when I drove to work, I listened to the same add 3 times on AM radio. The company […]

Hedge Advice for Farmers

Written By Chris Robinson

Corn: December Corn settled down 1 ¼ cents at 499 ¼ which is a 2 week low settlement.  Corn gapped open lower last night from 5.02 down to 4.99 ½, before grinding sideways through the night in a 4 cent range.  On the opening of pit trade at 8:30, the story continued, with sideways grind through a 5 cent range. Late in the day on short covering, the gap was filled with a run up to 501 ¾.  Exports were better […]

Buy Wheat/ Sell Corn for a seasonal Speculative Trade

There is  a seasonal trade which has wheat carving out a low in July.  This may be happening.  Below is a chart of the spread being  long December wheat and short December Corn.

The funds are net short wheat and corn now.  They have been short wheat for the last 6 months.

If we get the rains and corn falls, this may make this spread widen from its current level.

Dow Short and Bean Short

1) Make sure you have buy stops controlling risk on the Sep Dow short position if you have futures in place.
2) Make sure you have buy stops in the August bean position if you have futures in place.

If you want to remain bearish, but limit your risk,  look a the following puts:.
Buy an August 1300 put for 24 cents. That’s $1200 bucks with unlimited profit potential.

In the Dow,  consider at 1500 put for 153.

We’ll watch how these options play out over the next 2 months.

Regards,

CER

If we settle above 14.79, I’d be out of August Bean shorts

A settlement above resistance at 14.79 would get me out of my shorts.  We’d be taking a 15 cent loss from our sale average at 63. I started selling it at 55 and sold last at 70.  Downside profit objective would be a cover at 14.25.  Trying to make 40. Risking 15.  That’s 4:1 risk reward  I look for.

Today should be interesting.  Crop conditions dropped by just  2 percent. However, funds are long beans and short corn.
They will push their winner long in the beans,  and may have to flip out of their net short corn position.  CZ  could very easily rally back […]

Short August beans against 1468

This is a chart of spot beans,  August.
We had a nice buy today here at 14.21.  However, I’d be short here against 1468.  I’d be playing short side until 14.75 level.
This is purely a speculative play.
Good Trading.

PS. The Dow September futures contract is still under 15,425 as I write this.
Maintain shorts.  Have your buy stops in above, in case we pop.

I just think we came too far too fast and are due for a haircut here.

If we settle higher above that 15,500 level, […]

Dow Trade for Speculator— Could we see 15,800?

This chart is a daily of the September Dow Index.  As you can see, its at a critical point here.
In just the last 3 weeks, we’ve rallied 959 points from the June 24th low at 14,474.  Last Friday’s high was 15,433… 15,438  on May 28th…..15,448 contract high on May 22…..  If we can SETTLE above 15,530… I believe there’s a 70 to 80 percent chance we trade up to 15,800. 

However,   my position has not changed. Short, with a buy stop in case we take another leg up.
After a 959 pt rally in just 13 days,  I think its over extended.  I’d be […]

Grain Hedging VS Grain Speculating


Corn: December corn settled down 17 ¾ cents at $5.09 ¼. For the week CZ gained 18 cents. Today’s trade was volatile as we combined a Friday with the last trading day of July futures. July corn traded in a 26 ½ cent range on the screen, with a low tick at 7.00 ½. On the post close in pit trading, with no limits CN traded at $8.00. December posted its high of $5.27 on the pit open at 8:30 AM, headed south and never looked back. When […]