WZ-CZ Spread widens to 1.98– Did you buy it at or below 1.80??

About 10 days ago, I wrote that I liked buying WZ selling CZ. That spread was dancing around 180-175.   If you bought it when I recommended, you are starting to get rewarded.

Today the spread moved to 198.  Tomorrow,  it’s the first of the month.  Hopefully, we’ll see new money pour into this spread.   I’d be taking profits at $2.05. 

Good Trading

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Why Bearish New Crop Beans?

November bean chart:  When we couldn’t take out 13.00 and make a run above 13.40….. That was a big sign of weakness.  When we settled below $12.75  that was the second major sign of weakness. Finally, the trend is lower. If we take out the april low at 11.86….. that opens up another $1.00 to the down side.

 

For these reasons, I am more comfortable being a seller of rallies, rather […]

Short Sep Dow agains 15500. Short Sep SP’s against 1690.00

Above is a chart of Sep S&;P futures.  It could break 100 handles from this level and still be in a bull trend.

This week we have a lot of financial info coming out, culminating with Friday’s Un Enjoyment Report.
Although this number is a pale imitation of an imitation of itself compared to Pre-2001,  its still a widely followed number.  I won’t get into the argument of how it doesn’t represent true un employed. How it doesn’t account for those discouraged workers who have stopped trying for a new […]

Week Re-Cap

1) The Sep/Dec corn spread came in again another 2 cents, to go off at 16 cents.  Not long ago it was at 42.  I believe it could go another 16 cents to “even” with Dec.  I do not believe all of the longs are out yet.
A good rain forecast over the weekend  could push CZ to take out key support at the trend line at 4.75. Sunday night’s trade could be interesting.  I do think that since the funds are short corn and wheat, they will put the pedal to the metal and sell more if they get the chance Sunday night. 

Sep Dow Futures Down 119 as of 10:05: TAKE PROFITS ON SHORT FUTURES

Currently trading at 15,367.  If you are short from an average of 15,500,  you have 120 ticks of profit. That’s 1200 bucks per contract.  Take some profits on a portion of your shorts.  Roll down buy stops on the rest so that your worse case scenario on the balance is a push.

If  this is the beginning of the pre August exit to the sidelines,  we could get a tasty sell off here.
Don’t let a winner turn into a loser. 

Support levels to use for profit taking:  15,143:  15,015 and then 14886.

Short Sep/ Long Dec spread finally rewards after 5 cents of heat

First off,  yes; when CU/CZ rallied above 40, I took off 2/3 of the position. I really thought we could have a bounce to 50:  If you’ve been following,  you know I suggested this spread since first week in June. Roughly a month ago.
For the 1/3 I still have on, I  am not sure how low it could go. Best case would be from 28 over til 8 under.  That would be 36 cents more profit from here. If you are putting this bear spread on now, make sure you have 36/37 as a run and hid stop level.   Risk 10 cents to try […]

Brazil sends us beans. This sends Old Crop beans to the wood shed- limit down

Brazil sends us beans. This sends Old Crop beans to the wood shed- limit down. August beans traded as low at 13.92 1/2.    I covered my last short at 14.25.  We are currently trading 14.10   For now, I am sitting tight.  Let the smoke clear before you start trying to catch rallies or establish any new shorts.

I think  cash grain traders who know this grain was coming cleaned up. Absolutely. The delivery of the beans from South America to St. Lewis.  10 Cargoes.   Bye Bye old crop beans.

The Sale at 15.10 looks better and better.  Who Knew?  Sometimes s technical trade gets a […]

Position Update on Corn and Bean Shorts

On July 9th, I suggested selling that rally in CZ up to 5.30 and I had resting orders to sell August Beans at 15.10 if it ever popped up there.

If you have been following along, we actually have been short since the 5.65-5.70 level in CZ. We took heat, got stopped out on a weekly basis. Fortunately, we re loaded on the way down.

Today CZ is at 4.83
I have 4.70 to 4.60 as the next level.
Today August beans are at 14.84.  15.25 was the high in August.   Cover shorts at 14.51 and 14.36.

Take profits or roll down buy stop locking […]