Sell the Dow at your own risk

Dow Futures have been spinning around in a 300 pt trading range here. Fluttering with every news conference from Washington DC about the sequester.  Sequester, Smeshter.
The market is at its top.  It can either pop higher and take out another 1,000 pts on a ten percent rally.  The upside risk is probably that, with 15,000 the next “magical target” that CNBC will be able to tout.
We are 150 pts away from taking out the old high.  That’s a given.  MSNBC will be running around saying “the recession’s over” long live the Fed,  long live Obama.   My guess is that the moment the President […]

Low in SH is 1459

Sorry, I missed by 4 cents lol.
Beans just fell OUT of bed today. We got confirmation of sales to China. All the lemmings got long.  And we’re 60 cents off our highs in ONE DAY. High 1516  low 1459. 
Corn could NOT take out 1552.  If its does,  look out below.
All farmers are bullish. Barely any have sold anything forward.   This is the first year in 3 years we might get a painful, cleansing sell off.
I hope I am wrong. I hope we will get a chance to sell grain higher. But right now, I think its going to take a […]

Sell SX Rally between 12.90 and 13.00

Today’s rally is one to sell.  Sell SX 12.90 to 13.00.  The high at 13.07 took out the 50% RT by 3 cents.
Its over done, and everyone who is buying this looking for a continuation is going to be selling it to us back down at 12.55.
Stay away from SH b/c its in a delivery month.  Last thing you want is to catch beans or get a delivery notice.
Trade May for old crop.  Or stay in SX and fade the rally.

Also,  foot note.  sell CX now if we take out 5.52
That is all.
CER

CZ Trend line within reach


Corn: CH closed up 5 ¼ cents at $7.00 ½. CZ settled up 3-3/4 cents at $5.61 ½. Funds sold just 2,000 contracts. Today was a quiet news day for corn, with most of the overnight trade focused on more rumored sales of beans and wheat to China. Traders will have an eye on Thursday and Friday’s Ag Outlook Forum from the USDA from Washington D.C. The trade is expecting a bearish tone from that meeting. We are also just 5 weeks away from the March 28th USDA […]

2-1/2 year old Support Trendline in CZ13

Mark will be giving his 2 hour seminar in the following cities: February 21st Denver, CO; February 22nd Tupelo, MS; February 23rd Bloomington, IL. Call the office for details if you’d like to attend.

Corn: CH settled 4 cents higher at $6.98 ¾ cents. This was the first time in 11 days CZ had a higher settlement. Corn has never settled lower 11 consecutive days in CBOT history since 1965. For now that record remains in place. CZ settled down ¾ at $5.63. For the week CH settled 10 ¼ cents, while new crop CZ gained ¼ cent. A quiet Friday trade heading into the […]

USDA On your Mark, Get Set:… Go !!

Corn: March corn settled down 11 ¾ cents at 7.10 ¾ which is the lowest settlement in one month. New crop CZ fell 11 cents to a 7-month low and low settlement at $5.66 ½. If you’re keeping track, CH has dropped 36 cents since Feb 1st, while CZ has dropped 31 cents. CZ’s low today at 5.65 ¼ is almost EXACTLY $1.00 off the contract high at $6.65. This represents a 15% loss in value over 5-months. Tomorrow we will get February world crop production and U.S. and […]

Bullish Cattle Report: Dow has rallied 1220 pts in 30 Days.

Cattle Inventory numbers were released this afternoon from the USDA. Here are the official estimates.

All cattle and calves are estimated at 98%.
Calf crop at 97%.
Beef cows that have calved at 98%.
Beef replacement heifers at 102%.
Calves under 500 pounds at 98%.

Most numbers came out on the friendly side as expected. The real only stand was the replacement heifers for calving which was 4% higher than anticipated. This may be the signal that producers are holding back young females to rebuild […]