Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn and Beans on USDA

Bearish wheat.  Corn hangs in early.  Beans should be supported.
Wheat looks vulnerable making new 5-month lows.
There’s another 50 cent downside risk in wheat.

In the Dow futures,  we are 35 ticks away from the November 7th– 2-month  high at 13,252.  I’d scale in sell as we approach that level and the the 13,316 high.  That’s a 70 point band of resistance that I want to be short against. 
CER

7:45AM

Dow Jones Approaches Key Resistance at 13,200

Today’s high 13,194.   I have been talking about 13,200 as a sell level for the last 200 pts. I have been a scale in seller here.  13,300 might be tested.  I would not cover shorts until we settle convincingly above that level.  13,251 was our November 7th which was met with a 817 pt sell off to the November 16th  5- month low, in the post-election puke fest.  13,600 is the level all the bulls are eyeing. 
With the fiscal cliff out there I don’t know how you don’t sell this rally.   In my own opinion,  I think the fiscal cliff,  Thelma and Louise scenario is […]

Tepid Stock Market Response to 7.7% Un-employment

A tight 100 pt trading range on an unemployment Friday?  I’d call that a tepid response to what should have been bullish.
Perhaps traders are more worried about the fiscal cliff negotiations than any thing else.
We continue to have no settlement with both sides apparently happy to keep campaigning in the press instead of getting the job done.   Maybe they should lock these guys in a room w/ no bathroom for a weekend.  My guess is they’d come to an agreement after about 12 to 18 hours.

In any event, my opinion remains the same. I am scale in seller here between 13,000 and […]

Hogs Look Exhausted after a $15.00 / 3 month rally

December hogs rallied 15 dollars in 3 months.  The top step  contract,  Feb Hogs,  rallied from 77 to 88.  I’d have a resting order to sell Feb hogs at the 86.00 level.  Market will have to rally back to get that done,  but that’s the level I’d sell.  we are at 84.50..  for more aggressive trade,  sell it here, risk it to a close above 86 and look to cover shorts at 83.00 to 82.50.
Time stamp it.
That’s all for today.
CER

Dow Huddles around 13,000

As the drama continues around the fiscal cliff in Washington,  the Dow huddles around the 13,000 level.  Bulls look to the tea leaves and assume we won’t go off the cliff. 
In my opinion the level between 13,000 and 13,200  should be scaled into on sells.  there is a wall of resistance up at 13,500.  and support below down at 12,400.  That’s 1100 pts worth of sideways churn from my perspective. 
Sell  into the highs and try to get long on the break.
If we move sharply above 13,500, then take losses on shorts and move on.

I am not in a real […]

Monday 12/3/12 Grain Marketing Letter

December 3, 2012

Written by Chris Robinson

Corn: March corn settled up 2 ¼ cents at 7.54 ¾. CH posted its high at 7:30 AM but then leaked lower all day, breaking 15 cents from its highs. A 5 cent rally in the last 3 minutes saved the corn from a lousy performance. Export inspections had been expected to be 23-26 million bushels. The actual number was a disappointing 9.626 million bushels. New crop CZ13 settled up 4 ¼ cents at […]

December is living up to its Reputation

Wheat, corn and beans leaking from earlier highs.  The action is not very encouraging for the bulls.
Either there is a lack of interest or just fatigue.  Anytime the market gets bullish news and can’t hold a rally,  that’s a sign of weakness.
I’d be careful getting too in love with any position here. I’d look at the ranges I broke down earlier for March Futures.
December may just be a good month to trade one lots and let it go.

I have to say  I thought we’d be a lot higher today on the Egyptian Tender.  We struggled overnight, and today, we’ve continued to have […]

Range Bound March Wheat has 9.00 in the gunsights

Yes, Egypt tendered wheat from the US over the weekend. In general, US wheat was 20 to 40 bucks a ton cheaper than that available in the Black Sea.  March Wheat Has been in a Range bounded by 845 on the bottom with resistance at 930 on top going all the way back to June.  That’s 5 months of range trade.  The mid point of the trade is 8.87.  On Friday we rolled down to the 8.65 level.  I see no reason why we don’t run back up to 887 1/2 or 897 1/2.  

Lets move to March Corn.  March corn has a range […]

A nickle is the best the bulls can do?

So far, wheat, corn and beans are only up a nickle.  Not a very powerful rally in the wake of announcement that Egypt bought US Wheat. What does this mean? 
I am not really sure.  I would have thought we would have been 15  to 20 higher.

What to do?

Take your profits,  raise your sell stops on any longs and sit tight.  We might get  busier around 3 AM.  I will be sleeping letting my stops do the work.

I just thought we would have been a lot higher.   Un like a lot of people,  I don’t hesitate to say  I was wrong.  […]

Egypt Buys US wheat

Apparently 4-month low in US wheat and Friday’s ugly close brought out the value shoppers in Egypt.
Seems like Egyptian politicians are just like any other politicians.  They know what happens when their subjects can’t get reasonably priced bread.  Generally, that’s a bad outcome for the politicians.

We open Sunday night electronic trading in a few hours. My guess is that traders who 1) stayed short based on Friday’s ugly close or 2)  went home short looking for follow through;  they will lead the rally up as they cover losing positions.

In general, this should be supportive for corn prices as well.  Tonight’s trade should […]