Deal or No Deal? 13,300 is the pivot point

If we don’t get a deal by Xmas on the fiscal cliff,  I’d rather be short than long.   We took decent profits on the last break down. Granted we never got the 13,000 level, but we may sometime soon if we keep grinding here.
1) Remember this is December and trade is thin.
2) Remember to not get married to a position.  Its more important to make money than have your ego stroked by being correct.
3) Trade management and management of losses is the key to prospering in the markets.

That being said,  I’d be looking to sell rallies in Dow Futures.  You must […]

5-month low Corn and Wheat

December 19, 2012

Written By Chris Robinson

Corn: CH settled down 17 cents at $7.03 which is a new 5-month low settlement. New crop CZ13 settled down 9 ½ cents at $6.13 ½ which is a one month low settlement. Corn posted its high early and then headed south for the rest of the day. Informa released an estimate of 99.026 million acres for anticipated corn acres in 2013. This was up 1million acres from their last estimate. One word, “Bearish”. […]

12/18/12 update

1) Fiscal cliff,  on again,  off again.   Bottom line, watch the key resistance at 12,300.  I might expect an intra day pop above there just on weak short covering.  I’d  be more inclined to watch where we SETTLE.  A settlement above 13,300 blows me out of all my short positions.  Forewarned is fore armed.

2) Rain in the plains putting a little pressure on wheat.  that 809 level has now been tested.  If we settle below 8.00, that opens the door to another 30 to 50 cents lower.  A lot of producers were wary to sell b/c its hard to sell forward dirt.   However,  the […]

Friday 12/14/12 Update: Short the Dow: Long the Grains

You should still be short Dow futures.  Currently trading at 13,129.  The first support I listed yesterday is close.  Within one tick. Today’s low  so far 13,117.   I had 13,116.   close enough if you want to cover.  There is a half hour left to go before market closes.

Book profits.  Move down protective buy stops to insure profits or at worse case,  a push.

12,986,  12881 and then 12,776 are downside support targets. 

Make sure you keep buy stops in place.  Make sure they are buy stops and not limit stops.  Sometimes with limit stops you can get traded right through and then have […]

13,150 last Tick in Dow: You should still be short

Last tick 13,187,   low tick 13,145.  The Dow looks vulnerable to a sell off at least down to 13,000 by tomorrow,  Friday. 
However,  if we catch a bid and the bulls get back in the driver’s seat,  then our buy stops will insure that we make money,  or 2)  worse case scenario,  break even with a push.
Maintain shorts.

Down side targets to cover shorts:  13116,  12986,   12881 and then 12,776.

In the wheat,  I’d use today’s sell off to cover short and initiate speculative longs.   WH traded down to 801 and settled at 808 1/2.   808 1/2 is 200 day moving average and […]

13,323 is the high tick/ you should still be short

The high tick in Dow Jones Dec was 13,326.
We settled at 12,225, on the dead ass low of the day and 100 pts away from that high tick.  100 pts on a one lot is 1K bucks.  Not a lot of $ if your name is Boris or  your last name rhymes with who-dat…  but,   most people would be happy with that.
1) move your stops down to guarantee you have nothing worse than  a push.
2) take profits on a small portion as a reward for being correct.

Don’t watch TV or turn on the screen until Friday afternoon.  
If these guys don’t […]

Do We Settle Dow Futures above 13,300?

Here we sit.  Do we settle Dow Futures above 13,300?  so far high is 13,305, that’s the high tick.  If you are long,  take profits.  If you are like me and have been scaling out of longs and getting short since 12,150…You sit tight. Let you buy stops work.  Fold your arms.  Turn off the screen and check back Thursday or Friday.

March Wheat,  to switch gears:   We had a 2.35 rally this summer fueled by the corn drought.  In the past 3 days, we’ve dropped over 50 cents.  We came down to 8.09 last night  which is the 200 day moving average.  Its also […]

Wheat has 20 to 50 cents of down side risk

Both Chicago and KC wheat look vulnerable for at least a 25 to 50 cent break down from these levels.  New Crop KC WN looks poised to take out support at 9.00.. next support 8.84 then 8.50  a real melt down takes us to 8.25 and the bottom of the 1.00 trading range going all the way back to the July lows. 

Chicago WN is at 845.  the 850 level has failed and the next stop is 8.25.  If 8.25 does not hold,8.00 is definitely in the cards.  That being said,  I am going to be buying it at 8.25to 8.16 on a flush.  […]