12,742 was the low tick in March Dow

  • Posted on: December 31, 2012

I hope you covered.   An important safety tip, when there is a level in the Dow, I tend not try to get the exact tic.  Instead I will be in a 30 tick window around that target.  15 higher or 15 lower.
I cautioned on Friday to have buy stops, in case this stuff popped by150 points.  Low an behold we are back up at 12,862, about 100 points higher off those lows.

The 6 years I spent standing in the Dow  pit when open outcry was still viable, taught me how nasty the moves could be in your face if you were complacent.  Back in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001,  we regularly had 300 pt trading ranges all day long, and we traded through them sometimes two or three times in the same trading day.

Honestly, I’d want to be a small long here,  buying against the 12,740 level.  That level was a 62% retracement of the  938 point rally we had between the November 16th low at 12,380 and the December 19th high at 13,318.  (That’s for you Boris) 

A reader w/ the first name “Boris”  likes to send me emails all the time asking me why I look at Fibonacci’s.   Heres’ a perfect example.   Bon Appetite.   Nothing works all the time, but more often than not, I’ll initiate trades happily around Fibonacci levels.

Will we go over the cliff?  Its any one’s guess. 
The blame game continues in Washington DC.  I think the key for the markets is the fact that Geitner said we are not gonna default because of the “cliff”  for at least 2 more months…  That to me suggests that we will continue to hear the arguments in DC, for,  you guessed it… another 2 months.

CER