Grain Rally is looking Old and Overdone

  • Posted on: July 26, 2012

Today is July 26, 2012.  We have December corn flirting once again with the $8.00 resistance level.  Tomorrow is the last Friday of the month, and historically,  markets like to make highs on those calender events.
Since June 15th,  December new crop 2012 corn has rallied $2.94 from its low tick at $5.06.  Since June 1st, SX12 beans rallied $4.46 cents between the low at $12.45 up to last Friday/ this Monday’s high at $16.91.  Between Monday’s high and yesterday’s low at  $15.36.  That was a $1.55 correction in 72 hours.
Just an example of how fast it drops when the party is over.
Now we have since rebounded,  but every day we are not able to take out that high at $16.91 it diminishes the bullish fervor.
As for the Wheat, right as harvest was finished for winter wheat we bottomed out and rallied $3.04 from the Jun 15th low at $6.49 1/4 up til Monday’s high at $9.53 1/4.  

So, there’s the math.  And what is going on in the rest of the world on a daily basis.
1) Dollar has rallied with fears of Europe debt which ebbs and flows on a daily basis.
2) CNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC  all will NOT stop talking about the drought
3) Craig Colbert, the comedian,  had a PHD in Ag Economics on his show.  He was trying to be funny, but the PHD thought it was for real.   The point is, its looking like its late in the day.
4) Joe Kennedy, the patriarch of the Kennedy’s who made most of his money 1) bootlegging and 2) cannonballing shorts during the 1929 crash was once quoted that he knew the top was in when “Shoeshine boys were giving him stock tips’.

Could the rally continue?  Yup
Is it looking over done to me?  Yup
Could you lose a fortune making a big bet here and not knowing before hand when you were going to blow out if its a loser?  Yup

What to do?  Buy put options.  You can’t lose any more than the cost of the put.  You know from Day 1) what your risk/reward is.
Unlike futures, you won’t get stopped out on a volatile $1.55 cent move which takes place in a matter of hours.

What I would look at are puts at the following levels.
CZ 7.00 puts for 25 cents. that’s $1,250 risk for a possible 3 to 4 times profit when prices correct.
SX 14.00 puts for 22 cents.  That’s $1,100. risk for a possible 3 to 4 times profit.
WZ 8.00 puts for 25 cents.  $1,250.00 risk for a possible double or triple.

So that ‘s it.  That’s what I would do.  Follow along.  Play Monday morning quarterback.  Write me an email 2 months from now either 1) thanking me or 2) ridiculing me for being a dumb- ass / shameless cripple.  I could care less.  I know its a good risk reward.  Is is a guarantee slam dunk winner?  Nope. Take it or leave it.  If you have been reading my blog and think it stinks,  then put your money on the opposite way. Fade my ideas.  I hope you make money.  I really do.  At the end of the day, that’s all that really matters.  Its easy to sit and criticize.  Totally another thing to step out and actually take a risk and live with the consequences.

CER