Reality vs. Perception: The Big Disconnect

  • Posted on: March 13, 2012

The S&P cash making its highest ticks since June 2008? The Dow also moving ahead of the 13,000 level.
Oil at 107. Back in 2008 oil was 34 dollars a barrel higher.
It just seems like a big dis connect to me.

The trend is bullish for stocks. We are at the top of our trading range, making new highs. I am hearing less and less bullishness from the cable voice boxes.

If you press me, I think we trade sideways to higher through May. I’d then sell in May and go away. I’d have stops in place in case we have a new up leg though.
One thing I have learned, you have to be going the other way of the herd to do well in investing. The herd was very bearish just 3 months ago. I think it will take another 3 to 6 months of a bull “drift” higher rather than a rocket ship to bring them around.

I firmly believe that 1) the Unemployment level will magically get below 8% by this fall. I also predict 2) “full employment” will be adjusted from the historical goal of 6% unemployment that I was taught since High School Econ with Dr. Ben Sauers back at SSA. The definition of full employment from economists will be adjusted to 8%. This will lower the bar, effectively admitting to a new class of permanently unemployed or under employed Americans. We are heading the way of England in the 1970’s as a society unless some changes are made and we can grow our way out of this malaise.

I am optimistic we will grow our way out of this. Warren Buffet, who’s next mistake apparently will be his first ever in his lifetime, was recently quoted as saying we couldn’t not grow our way out of this problem.

Maybe Warren is showing his age, but I’d bet on the back bone of America. Long term we’ll persevere. If I ever don’t feel that way, then I’ll move to Canada or New Zealand and throw in the towel.

CER