Is Goldman correct? Does it even matter- that’s the question

In the past few days, Goldman and the rest of the big managers came out with the latest” Big Idea.” In short, an end to the commodity supercyle and a beginning of money flow back into equities and away from commodities. They were arguing that now was the time to buy stocks. Now? after the Dow has rallied back from 6500 to 13,500, just 1,300 points from the record 2008 high. Now? afer the S&P has rebounded from 666 on its lows to above the 1400 level. Gee, now you tell me its time to buy? Seriously, You are telling me now to buy? Where […]

1400 is a given in the S&P Cash

We’ll see 1400 shortly in the S&P cash. There’s resistance there, 1440 and then 1500. the all time high was 1576 back on the first week of October, 2008.
1365 looks to be the new floor of support.
Trade Accordingly.
Regardless of the fundamentals, the market is telling us it wants to go higher.
all those bearish fund managers quoted back in the New York Time and WSJ around December?
I hope they flipped and got long.
If they haven’t yet, I’d love to know when they finally flip.

On a side note, May corn back making a new high for the year. We just […]

Buy December 4.00 put for 4 cents

4 cents a bushel. 200 a contract. December Christmas Corn Puts.
If I am correct, these cuold be worth at least a dollar come harvest.
Buy them. Put them away. Don’t look at them til November.
I feel strongly about this.
I may be early on this bearish idea, but for 200 dollar bet with a possibility to make 5,000 on that 200 dollar bet, I like this.

CER

Reality vs. Perception: The Big Disconnect

The S&P cash making its highest ticks since June 2008? The Dow also moving ahead of the 13,000 level.
Oil at 107. Back in 2008 oil was 34 dollars a barrel higher.
It just seems like a big dis connect to me.

The trend is bullish for stocks. We are at the top of our trading range, making new highs. I am hearing less and less bullishness from the cable voice boxes.

If you press me, I think we trade sideways to higher through May. I’d then sell in May and go away. I’d have stops in place in case we have a […]

Grains rally on a seemingly neutral/bearish report

Anytime we have a market rally after a seemingly bearish/neural report from the USDA it gives me pause.
Currently, its 10:05 AM.. Beans corn and wheat are rallying after moving lower on the open.
bottom line:
Cover the shorts. Targets were hit Wednesday and Thursday.
This could be short covering, but to me it smells like something else.
The dollar is rallying and grain is rallying. That’s also giving me pause.

On to the Stock indexes. The Dow had a break down to 12,721. a nice break.
I have had profits locked in and have more buy stops which are getting filled as i […]

Look out Below

For a while now, I have been suspect of the rally in the stock indexes. Go back and read my last few entries. I am not calling for the end of the world but its interesting how, as soon as CNBC, GMA, and your local TV anchor start touting the return to 13,000 in the Dow as a sign that “Happy Days are Here Again”.. the market steps in with a combination of leather face, Jason from Halloween, and the shark from Jaws in order to deliver some pain to the bulls.

Last week, I also did a report from the floor on the grains. […]