1369 was our high in S&P cash in May of 2011

Here we are, within a stone’s throw of 1369. That high in the spooz was posted in May of 2011, May 2nd to be exact. To refresh any lack of short term memory, 4 months later, on 8/9/2011, S&P was at 1101. That only 268 handles in 20 week. No worries. Just another buying opportunity…(That was my attempt at sarcasm). 20% correction in 20 weeks.

Please keep that in mind as you watch TV and listen to the radio this week.
The squawking has been about the jump in oil prices. If the S&P can post at fresh run at this high, that will […]

Don’t get suckered into buying b/c of the Greeks

For god sakes, I am watching cable TV this morning and I feel I have to write this letter this morning.
Please do not get long stocks here thinking that the Greek issue is all fixed. Now we have Portugal, Ireland,Spain… So don’t get lulled into complacency by TV headlines.
What happens if Greece does not stay the course?

Also, for the love of god, CNBC was asking “What’s next ? Dow 15,000??” Good lord almighty they are bullish beyond bullish.
All it takes is Greece getting a budget and all is right again in the world? Really.

I am looking for this […]

Stock Index Rally is getting really really old

This rally in S&P has been nice. Its especially nice if you faded the WSJ and NYTimes bearish news columns which were permeating the land between Christmas and the first week of January. If you go back and read my entries, I suggested fading this bearishness.

Alas, now that the S&P is 11.58 rallied up to 13.54, almost 200 handles in 9 weeks. That, my friends, is un sustainable. And now we are starting to see the dow challenge the “next big round number” at 13,000.

Looking at the S&P, though its been on a ridiculous rally if you go back to 1074 and […]

WSJ Likes Corn?

Fortunately, my shorts in beans which were profits remained profits even on this bounce. That’s why I use stops.

As for Corn, CH, old crop has been on a nice bounce. We are flirting with the 100 day moving average, a big technical level. 6.50 will be a bump in the road on a rally which will be fueled by short covering in the wheat.
There’s plenty of wheat, but Europe is worried about cold, Russian Exports, etc. etc.
Australia has another huge crop on hand.
Worldwide carry out is large and fundamentally negative. That being said, the funds are short 65K contracts of wheat. […]