Market Braces for Friday’s Un-Employment

China downgrades US debt? We are looking at an average guess of 9.2 for unemployment tomorrow. Currency wars are on, as Japan sells yen against the US dollar.
Vladimir Putin, the Soviet Union’s Godfather, calls the USA “parasites on the world economy”? really? where was he when Russia defaulted during the Clinton administration? Does anyone remember Long Term Capital Management??

So, looking at Dow futures, there is support at 11,451, which was the March 2011 low. That level also corresponds to old resistance going back to April of 2010. 10,916 was the December low from just 9 months ago.

Market’s will push until they find […]

Its only 1,000 pt break in 9 trading days :)

Its only a 1,000 point break lower in 9 trading days. How bad could it be? Dow jones cash was trading at 12,751. Today’s low was 11,700. HMMM.

There are two trades here potentially. 1) sell the 50 % pull back if we rally up to 12,225 or 2) sell the first rally up to the old bull trend line which comea in at 12,100.

I like selling both. So, that being said, I think you get a long position here. Try to catch it both ways.

1,000 pts in 9 trading days demands a bounce.

Remember, August generally reeks like 3 day old […]

Dow Cash Support at 11,625, 11,240 and then 10850

Dow Cash Support at 11,625, 11,240 and then 10850.

Each of these cash levels should be bought on an initial break.

11,240 is, in my opinion, a good short term downside target. That would require a sell off of another 600 points from today’s low. I imagine we will pause at 11,625 first though.

Either way, its August. Europe is going on vacation. For the next 3 weeks, the trade will be stupidly volatile. CNBC “analysts” will no doubt be shopping for razor blades and slip knots, preparing for the end of the world here at some point.

Bottom line, last July 2010 we traded […]

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact

Early on last night the dow futures were up close to 200.. high tick at 12,280… we are currently 120 off those highs.

I’d be inclined to sell 12,200 here. If Friday’s low at 12,029 fails then we could see 11,800. That, honestly, would not surprise me.

I’d stay long gold above 1600.00

In the grains, we should have some volatile trade.

Bottom line, watch the Dow. Everyone who got long on the “good news” of no default, could end up w/ egg on their face at 4PM.

CER