11,900 IS A BUY

A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that I had seen a headline calling for the next great depression. I don’t know if a 10 percent correction is the start of the second leg down or not.
11,900 is the 1/2 way retracement from our Dec Low at 10,932 and our May 2nd high at 12,876.

I think its a buy. There is support down at the 11,555 as well. For today, however, buy it and put a sell stop in 100 points below.

That is all

Wide Trading Ranges Look Probable for the next 12 weeks

We may be nearing the bottom of our trading ranges in the Stock indexes for the Summer.
12,215 is the mid point of our recent 1325 trading range. The low of that range was put in Mid March 2011. The high we pierced just 6 weeks ago on May 2nd.

I like the following support levels in Dow Cash and S&P Cash.

Dow Cash: 11,860, 11,777 and then the March low at 11,555.

S&P Cash: 1262, 1251 and the March low at 1241. If the bears really get going, 1225 is a buy.

My opinion, for what its worth, the Stock indexes are going to […]

July Corn Failed at 8.00 once again, while CZ settled at 712

With corn at record levels, one has to consider at what point it continues to attract fresh buyers. A bull must be fed every day. A bull market needs sustained buying. A bull market can fail, no so much do to some graphic or frightening catalyst. Very often bull markets begin to turn on nothing more than a lack of new buyers.
I believe that CZ at 715 is getting into the latter stages of attractiveness. Morgan Stanley came out and predicted 900 new crop CZ corn, everyone and his brother is bulled up.
Wheat is already starting to roll over technically, Beans can’t get […]

Stock Indexes Eye the Spring Lows– Look out Below

The March low in the Dow cash was 11,555. With the failure of support at 12,055, and the move below 12,000, sell stops have been touched off. I wrote last week that if the market did fall apart, we’d get short on a sell stop. I had had a small winning long position on last week.
Using good risk/reward parameters, that became a net profit on 1/3 and a push on the rest. The most I risked on the last 1/3 of the position was just under 160pts.

The old adage sell in May and go away has rewarded bears again. Is this the start […]

USDA tomorrow At 7:30

I’d sit tight the Dow position.
At this point its a push, with a free upside potential if it rallies.

Tomorrow the USDA releases crop production figures.

Interestingly, CZ settled 6 3/4 cents higher than the last trade. I don’t think its the pit who settles the prices. However, this is ridiculous. It triggers the technical traders buy signals.

It settled the CN-CZ five cents out from where it was actually trading. 6-3/4 cents is an extra 350 bucks profit per contract. If you have 2,000 contracts on, you just picked up a cool $700K “profit” just based on the settlement.

I predict, eventually, […]

Dow bounces 100 pts….Can it keep fighting back?

Yesterday’s low in Cash Dow was 12,070. today’ high has been 12, 173. If you bought yesterday, please put a sell stop in. With this strategy, you should come away from this position at worse case, with a push. If you can lock in a small profit all, the better.

Now I would sit and wait. Mr. Bernanke is speaking this afternoon. Your guess is as good as mine as to what he will say, or how the market’s will re act..
I do know that after an 806 point down move from the May 2nd high at 12,876, today.. June 7th, just 4-1/2 […]

Buy the Dow today, risk 100 points

12.093 was our April 18th low in the Dow Cash. Last Friday’s low at 12, 104 was a great buy. 12, 061 was my target. If you have not bought it already, buy it today.
I’d risk 100-200 points loss. I’d have scale out sell orders above at 12, 284 and
12,334. 12, 400 should be sold initially.

Please place stop orders after each contract is bought. You must manage the down side risk.
That is all
CER

Dow Cash Retraces 1/2 of its 3 month, 1,321 point rally

Dow Retraces 1/2 of its 3-month 1,321 point rally.
We posted a 5-month low on March 16th at 11,556. We rallied to a 3 year high on May 2nd at 12,876. Hence, the 1,321 point rally. That doesn’t get any attention in the media.
However, Break 660 points in 3 weeks, well THAT’S exciting.. 12,217 was a 50% retracemcent. For today, so far, that was a great buy level.

Could we roll over and head down to 12,061 which would be a 62% retracement of the same up move? I […]

Bearish Fever Returns to Forefront?? CNBC calling a top? You have to be joking..

Oh, my goodness, its already begun. Summer’s apon us, earning season doesn’t kick in strong again until next September, and the Stock Index bears are waking up.

Stock indexes are generally accepted as a forward looking indicators. In March of 2009 S&P Cash was at 666. It doubled in in February of 2011. Two years of rally. 666 times two is 1332. Today the S&P Cash is at 1320.

In the CASH Dow, the March 2009 low was 6470. A double would be 12,940. We never got that double. Our high, 12,876 we just picked off on May 2, 2011. We missed the exact “doubling” […]