God Help Those Who Trade Off of TV Suggestions

Last Friday I wrote how the movement in Wheat had finally hit the national media. CNBC, forever perma bulls, ran a story which could only be described as “friendly” wheat..
The suggestion was to look favorably on the High protein wheat in Minneapolis and KC…. 1) FACT this report came ONE DAY AFTER Minneapolis posted its contract high at 10.78 last Thursday… Last Friday, the high was 1972- 1/2. Today’s low was 10.17-1/2. From tip to trough, that’s 60 cents of downside risk in 72 hours… 60 cents on a one lot is 3K.. On a typical 10K spec account, if a customer had a […]

Downside potential in Wheat and Beans

WN has 40 cents of downside risk here. SX has 50 cents of downside risk.
Both contracts have failed at upper trend line Resistance.
SX has a trendline from 1410 April 11th, drawn to the may 26th high at 1382 1/2..Sell against these trendlines.

In WN go to the Feb 9th high at 950 3/4… then the 5/27 high at 8.27… support in WN is from the march 16th low at 691 and the may 13th low at 7.23.. support comes in at 741 1/2…

That is all for now.

CER

Friday before a long Memorial Day —-Get Flat

I don’t like having positions on over a long weekend. Markets will be closed until Monday night at 6PM.
For my taste, that is too much risk. If you have positions on with good profits, consider getting out today and putting them back on Tuesday Morning.

One interesting thing I saw today, at about 11:45 PM Chicago time, CNBC had Dennis Gartman on an interview about wheat. Long story short… Surprise??? CNBC had a bullish tone to it.
I walked out of the office for 15 minutes to get a bit to eat afer the interview was finished. I came back and WN had […]

A quick Technical Out Look for my favorite Markets

As the school year ends, graduations and weddings are upon us, its not unusual to see the stock indexes go to sleep. June is upon us, July is a holiday month in the US, and then Europe basically shuts down for August.
Barring any unforeseen calamity, I could see a period of sideways chop in about a 500 or 600 point sideways chop in no man’s land.

Grains: Volatility rules, but so far,I still like the strategy of selling rallies with tight protective stops. November beans is hugging a trend line with 13.50 being the concentration area. A settlement above 13.70 would be bullish a […]

Risk Off Day—as Greece Issues Pop Up Again

Dow Jones Cash has support at 12,321,,, 12,161 and the 12,000. Sadly we never got the doubling print up above in Dow Cash, but we did in the S&P..
In the S&P we have support at 1306, and then 1291.. Quite frankly, a settlement below 1300 in the S&P cash will have the CNBC reporters running scared crying that the sky is falling..March 17th we had an s&P low at 1240…

If you want to buy these dips, be ware.. If the funds start running this thing lower, all bets are off.

Two weeks ago, I had an entry about how I was […]

Do not Marry any position–EVER

Sell Target gets hit, Buy target gets hit.. Now What?
I watched a client ride a 12 cent winner to a 35 cent loser back to a 23 cent winner in the past 4 days.
I suggested all along he have protective stops. He declined to use them. I can’t force some one to take my advice.
After 23 years doing this, I think I might have some insight to pass along, but some people don’t seem to value that experience.
They want your council until it goes against their ideas, then they ignore it. If they are wrong in their decision, there is […]

New Crop Beans Hit Target

I know its scary to sell into a powerful rally, but the area I wanted to sell in SX has been hit here today on a powerful sympathetic rally with corn. Currently the 13.50 level in futures is trading. Risk 35 cents on a sell stop to try to catch a potential move lower.

You MUST have a protective buy stop here.

In fact, with the volatility we are seeing in the grains, you must have stops on all positions entered at this point.

Old Crop CN corn has completed a 62% retracement of its recent $1.31 down move. We hit that target at 7.40 […]

Dow Cash Moves Towards buy targets…

Very quickly,
Look for 12,325 as a buying opportunity. Next I would buy 12,150, and then 12,000.
Those are scale in buy targets.
As always, have an exit strategy with sell stops to protect your buys.

In general, the “risk off” herd mentality gives us short term buying opportunities if we are fleet of foot.

These targets are for more short-term trades then, “buy and hold”. In other words,
have resting buy orders, look for 50 to 100 point pops to collect profits on bounces.

PS. The bean shorts are looking better and better. In general, I am a seller of rallies now in […]