The first loss is your best loss

  • Posted on: March 31, 2011

USDA report showed 300 Million bushels light in the carry out. The market responded by heading sharply higher. We were limit up Plus 30 cents. The synthetic was showing we’d be another 35 higher on opening tonight. 65 cents rally back in 2 days.

I would stand aside. If you are already long, hold it and look for a challenge of the 750 area in CK. That is just 50 cents away.

I remain friendly beans. Soybeans have a way to go on the charts.
It seems pretty clear the market wants to test the 07/08 highs.

Be patient with the Dow shorts.

Crude is back to no man’s land. I think you buy it against the 106 level in CM as a fulcrum.
Remember, the trend for the last 14 months has been higher.
The trend for corn and beans has been higher since jun 2010.

We can make money or the countertrend. But overall, these commodities look like they have a way to go.
CER