The first loss is your best loss

USDA report showed 300 Million bushels light in the carry out. The market responded by heading sharply higher. We were limit up Plus 30 cents. The synthetic was showing we’d be another 35 higher on opening tonight. 65 cents rally back in 2 days.

I would stand aside. If you are already long, hold it and look for a challenge of the 750 area in CK. That is just 50 cents away.

I remain friendly beans. Soybeans have a way to go on the charts.
It seems pretty clear the market wants to test the 07/08 highs.

Be patient with the Dow shorts.

Crude is […]

Maintain Shorts in Dow, but keep the emergency exit in sight

I want to maintain my shorts in the Dow, with a hard buy stop above 12,400> I am not going to tell you my specific level. When and if i get stopped out I will tell you.

I am comfortable taking a little more heat on my initial short position. However, I am not going to fight this bounce for ever.

I am comfortable being bearish here, especially since today I saw CNBC noting that we were “just 30 points away from our 2011 highs”… makes me want to sell more here. However, shorts are only good if they make you dough. The stops will […]

Crude Short looks good

Friday, I suggested getting short at the 106.50-106.00 area. Today we are down 1.50.
Make sure you move your buy stop down and secure guaranteed profit. Do not let this position be anything less than a winner.

I am still short the Dow. I will wait another few days. 12,400 may be an area to add to shorts at 12,100. However, we will have to have an iron clad exit stop above 12,400.

As for the grains, we will chop sideways until Thursday’s USDA report. Gold is down another 13.00
I can’t believe I was just .40 cents away from getting filled an being […]

Friday and waiting for next week USDA—Where’s Beeks?

I will stay short the dow futures here, risking probably another 100 points or so.
For crude oil, we have returned to the scene of the crime, with this resistance at 106.00

I would wait to see if we can sell futures at yesterday’s high around 106.50. If you wanted to go ahead and step out with a short term, low risk position, I would buy a may 99.00 put for 850 dollars. That gets you short for the next 20 days. for a little more time, I would go to june put at 98 for 1.85 or $1,850.00

This is a counter trend trade, […]

Where’s China? and we are short the Dow at the Trendline

Still waiting for China to show up in the USDA… My gut tells me we’ll be waiting for a while.

We are short the Dow futures at 12100. We got filled overnight. I have a buy stop above, but I am looking to risk one standard deviation to the upside.
We’ll sit tight now and see how it turns out.

I am really looking at buying the US Dollar index on a spec once again. Two weeks ago it looked pretty good. We made a small profit. I think you do one of the two following trades 1) buy a june dollar index future […]

Suggest Selling Dow when cash hits 12,100

There is trendline on the daily charts above the current Dow cash level. 12123 is the trend line intersecton to sell. Tomorrow its 12109.
I suggest selling this rally here. The Dow has rallied 564 points in 3 sessions.

I think this is a great rally to sell on the initial move up. Looking at these charts, there is support at 11,450… That is taking advantage of the almost 1,000 point break from the February 18th and 22nd highs at 12,376 and 12,379.

I like this rather than waiting for another run up to those highs.

Good Trading

China Syndrome

With the pop up here above 11,850 we were stopped out of the rest of our shorts.

I have a small long position on, with an upside target of 12,400. I will patiently wait to sell that level.

I am patiently waiting to exit longs and initiate shorts at 1449 in gold.

The same people who were panic selling silver at 27, will be panic buying gold looking for a pop above 40.00
The same people selling their long gold at 1380 will be scrambling to try to buy a “break out” at 1450. We will be there to sell it.

Finally, China syndrome. Still […]

Volatility City

Dow Jones cash settles at 11,858. We are still short from 400 points above on some contracts, with buy stops protecting profits.

I am out of the Dollar trade as of today. The bounce I was looking for was half hearted, and there is too much speculative action in the Dollar/Yen cross trade.

So, in my opinion, be short, or stand aside.

For those of you who read my letter, you can see how I was trying to buy the panic break in the grains.
The bottom came when I had gotten down to a skeleton position after being repeatedly stopped out on new longs […]