Strong Finish for the New Year in all Commodities

I have not written an entry in a bit. Today is the last trading day of 2010. As I write this, Dow Cash is bumping up against 11,600, S&P cash is bumping up against 1260. These are the highest levels since Oct 09, a fact that has been trumpeted far and wide by the “new” bulls who are waking up after hiding under rocks since the July 4th weekend this Summer.

S&P cash looks like it will run at 1280 and then 1300. If we get a surge of money jumping back into the markets in Jan we should head for those targets. There […]

It took 6 months, but we got our 11,470 Print Today

The Dow Cash finally gave me my 11,469 print today. Traded right up to 11,499.70. Right now its 12:08 Chicago Time. I can’t believe we won’t get that 15,000 print, just to give the TV commentators something to crow about. Look for that Newsweek or Time cover (or some other weekly periodical) with a cover story touting the “5000 point OBAMA RALLY.. If they don’t they are missing a marketing opportunity..

Now its time for the Dow 20000 touts to pop up. Like a shooting gallery, they are sitting behind their office doors, waiting to be on TV… All I can say is Beware…

Next […]

Cover Crude Shorts from 90.

Today is Friday, Dec 10th, about 9:51 AM. Crude is down .53 at 87.74, Four days ago I wrote that I wanted to sell the 90 dollar level as a new position. i would cover 2/3 of the position today. Take the money and run. It’s December, markets are thin and we risked one dollar. We were not able to get below 87.50. I like taking the money on 2/3 of the position, and leaving a buy stop above at 89.50.
That is all for crude for now.

I think its a good time to sell some fat cattle. I think I’d like to be […]

1382 and 1370 in the Gold are good downside targets

Currently short gold at 1425. The high yesterday was 1432. I had a sell stop below 1425 yesterday to enter the market on a stop market order. Currently the market is at 1391. I want to cover at 1384 to 1382. 1382 is a level I would consider getting long. Its the 1/2 way point of the recent 100 dollar rally which started with the low at 1331 on November 16th. I really like buying at 1382, however, I want a tight sell stop.
If the wheels fall off this rally, and the correction goes back to 1370, I think that is a gift. Have […]

Gold Makes new high, then drops 20 bucks, Silver makes new high then breaks a dollar

If you have read my daily rec’s lately, you can see that I am a big fan of selling new historical highs. These give good trading opportunities. One dollar break on a one lot in gold is 100 bucks. 20 dollar break is a $2,000.00 opportunity on a ONE lot.

This is shaping up to be a key reversal day, in the metals, as the metals make new highs on bullish news from Washington, everyone gets long too late on the news, and the market punishes them for their decision to get long at the top.

That is all I have to say about that.


Bernanke’s Sixty Minutes a Bear Trap

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke on Sixty minutes last night. In general, it was a non event. I believe many folks got short stock indexes, got long the metals, and grains, looking for a surprise. Those who made large bearish speculative moves prior to this anticipated speech, most certainly were disappointed today.

As I write this, the Stock indexes remain firm, only down 17 points in the cash Dow and 2.50 in Cash S&P. The US dollar indexes move up to the 80.00 level and then backed off. However traders who were looking for a sell of in the dollar from some Bernanke surprise had […]

Unemployment Number is a Non-Event- But Watch our For Sunday Night’s 60-minutes show

The unemployment number, for much of the 1980’s 1990’s and up until about 2007, was often the most anticipated number. Very often the volatility that went along with that number meant it was one day that both bulls and bears had a chance to make good money trading the markets through the day. Specifically the 30 year down to the euro dollars, (the entire yield curve) would rock.

I continue to think that with interest rates at 0, effectively, and official unemployment hovering around 10 percent, the impact of the number as a trading opportunity has been cut significantly. Simply stated, its an opportunity, […]

Dow Jones Cash, 5,000 point rally?

On March 6,2009 the Dow Jones posted a low at 6,469.95… Fast Forward to this November 5th, just 18 trading sessions ago when we traded to a high at 11,451.53…
I am not trying to call a high, but for a very long time, if you’ve been following my daily musings, I have felt that a rally up to 11,469.95 was inevitable. For some, a high at 11,451, just 18 points away from a perfect 5,000 point rally, was close enough.

I myself got bearish there and although it took a little time, had my short positions pay off. I still have some 10,700 puts […]