Stay long the grains, but have your stops in

I like being long SN, especially on a 20 cent break from 940 to the old resistance level at 920. 950 and 975 are good targets to sell into on the first bounce up there. As July gets ready to expire, we should see a lot of significant price development, with less static noise and choppy trade. Old crop beans should be bought on dips. However, you need to have stop limits beneath every buy order. If I am right, and we get another 75 to 150 cent rally, just move up your trailing stops. Beans are made in August. Its the middle of July. […]

USDA Tomorrow, CNBC once again a Fade

First off, too bad no one actually reads this thing. I wrote just last night that it looked like old crop beans SN would go test 1020. We did just that, traded there and then broke hard right after. Resting order to sell there worked well, especially if you bought the dips on the way up. However, currently my readership is about negative 3, so it doesn’t really help anyone but me.

Tomorrow we have USDA out.. It will most likely be bullish in tone. However, I am anticipating a spike higher and then a correction lower on a “buy the rumor-sell the fact” trade.

If it Looks like a weather market, it acts like a weather market….

If it looks, like it, acts like and smells like it, we could be looking at the break out from our 4 month sideways chop in the grains. CZ pushed up against the 390 level, SX is up against 934,and old crop looks like its coiled and ready to test 1020 and then 1075.

Wednesday’s supply and demand could give us the fuel to finally break up and out of the resistance which has characterized these grains for the last 4 months. The oats, otherwise known as the canary in the coal mine, seem to have taken a break after a violent move higher, followed […]

What Has The Dow Really Done over 110 years?

To better demonstrate the true magnitude of the great bull and bear markets of the last century, it is necessary to adjust the Dow Jones Industrial Average for inflation. What the CPI (Consumer Price Index) adjusted Dow chart shows is that the 1966 to 1982 bear market was almost as severe as that of the early 1930s. And since 1982, a true and great bull market has ensued (even when adjusted for inflation).

I did some quick research this morning, July 5th. This is food for thought for the […]

An Important 4th of July for US to Stop, Look, and Listen


A broker friend of mine made a great comment just the other day. He said this market won’t bottom out until they have taken every bull in the room outside and shot him. At that point the bottom will truly be in. This individual was very pessimistic on the market’s current slide, however, I think his statement is very accurate. We really can’t have a bottom until the bulls have left the building on a stretcher…

Like Apollo Creed at the end of Rocky 1… “Aint gonna be no re-match… […]

9753 and the “experts” are panicking

Apparently, every TV commentator has finally taken a basic technical analysis course. They all know how to read a chart, or at least recent lows and highs. Congratulations, we’re making progress.
However, having an intra day trade at 9853 and a settlement at 9775 constitutes a “failure of 9800”.. Good lord, they are picky. My guess is that they and everyone like them who sold against the 9800 number today is going to get hammered by a short covering rally tomorrow through Friday.
We are going into a long weekend. If you were short, are you going home short over a holiday weekend where any […]