Limit Bid in the Corn…. We lost 1Million Acres

Looks like my idea that farmers were capitulating was correct. The USDA came out extremely bullish here today for corn. Expecting 88 to 90 million acres, instead, we got 87.8. We lost one million acres of corn. Opened higher today, and has danced around limit bid (+30) cents all day. This is looking like a sea change. We moved all the way back to our 2007 lows in the Dec 2010 contract. Made a new contract low,
frightened producers into what are shaping up to be sales in the proverbial hole.

Rest assured, its a good time to re-own sold bushels. A 15 cent investment […]

China Syndrome

Well, the market has been searching for something to wring its hands about. Today we seized on European banks, and the sudden realization that China’s economy is big enough to give us pause.

Its the end of the quarter, end of the month.. a lot of money managers are heading off to the Hamptons, Aspen, or where ever the beautiful people go these days. Europe is moving into the Summer diaspora of vacations. All of this, combined with a spook from China, was enough for the bulls to take their […]

Where are the Funds?

This is shaping up to be a whether market, not a weather market. Are we seriously going to have a drought this year? With fields in MO and the Dakota’s looking more like Rice Patties in Viet Nam, are we really still looking at a drought? Or will the dryness in the south eastern states prevail? This uncertainty has us in a sideways chop. The large speculative commodity funds are still short 45K Chicago Wheat, Long 30K corn and long about 20K beans. Hardly anything to write home about. Once again, I think its the computer programs, squeezing the life force out of these markets. […]

High Frequency Chopp Fest

Buy the rumor and sell the fact.
Summer markets are characterized by light volume, low liquidity, and as Europe rotates into July/August vacation mode this will only make trading more volatile.

The magical 10,500 level in Dow cash has us catching our breath. There looks to be a nice double bottom on the daily charts at 9800. We’ve had a 700 point rally from 9800 to today’s high at 10,594. That tends to silence the doom and gloom bears faster than a care of pepper spray. They can pontificate all they want about the myriad of reasons why we shouldn’t have rallied.
Bottom line, […]

Sunday Night Rally Lead by Asia

Will China really let the Yuan float? The very thought of it has enthused dormant bulls in Asia, and I believe, as the sun comes up on the East Cost of the USA this morning, traders who are not on vacation will be looking in their closets for their rally shoes.
Even those on vacation, may very well look for their rally flip flops, in anticipation of some follow through here this week.
This should translate well for commodities, as well, as corn wheat and beans are all up nicely this night.
In general, I’ve always liked going home long over a weekend in the […]

Dow looks to have its Summer Bottom in Place

9875 looks to be our Summer bottom. With the un ending dog and pony show sputtering to a stand off in Europe, it seems, the the rest of the world is holding its nose and staying with the US equities. We’ve seen everyone, right down to the Iranians, re own dollars.

The entire world seems to be in the out-house, wretching. However, the US has the largest out house, and, more importantly, has 15 carrier task forces at its disposal.
That leaves us the best alternative out of an alternative of weak choices.

As I write this, the Dow cash is up 87 points […]

Skewed Reality

I am really starting to believe that in short order, will be looking at a skewed version of reality. Like walking through the carnival hall of mirrors, fat can look thin in the right light and with the right curve of the glass.

With Unemployment technically at 9.7 percent after Friday’s unemployment number. The disconcerting part of the number was that 400+ of the jobs were public sector. Plus, if you read about the way they are counting census workers, it makes the whole number suspect. Remember in a month they can be re adjusted and we could swing + or – 100K or […]