Too close not to get that 11,000 print on a Friday

Well, we have absorbed what one would have thought would have been a very bearish item, the new zillion dollar health care plan. I can’t see how on a Friday, with the next unemployment number less than 2 weeks away that we don’t go get that 11,000 print in the cash Dow. We are also moving into the last day of the month, next Wed, March 31st. Also the start of a new quarter… That’s a recipe for re balancing and hopefully some volatility. Volatility equals trading opportunity. That’s why we hope for it as traders.

I am not sure we will settle above 11,000. That’s a coin flip, but I think we’ll get the print. There have to be some buy stops at or just above that level. Spec traders will do their best to set them off, and then sell into that rally.

If we get a significant settlement above the 11,000 level, I will guarantee that the Sunday morning talk show circuit will have a bunch of liberal leftie anti business political hacks, suddenly in LOVE with the the market. And they will be doing all they can to hold their individual mirrors to the sun to reflect back on the joy that is Obama.

I would caution these political hacks, however. No doubt at some time in the future when the market corrects, they will be the first to be blaming that break on ‘greedy speculators’ or the 30 year hangover that started with Reagan in 1980. That’s a nice trump card to pull. Heads, its our policies right now that are driving new highs…. tails, well… lets sit back and go back in time and discuss how that’s not really our fault… it all started in 1980… 🙂

Watch the dollar continue to be the talk of the town. Ten month lows in the Euro even have European socialists dismayed. What we really need is for France, Russia, China and OPEC to have another summit about moving the dollar to a secondary currency. That would rally the US dollar another 30percent in an of itself. Always fade politicians views on currency speculation. Always double down and fade European socialist politicians who try the same.

Remember my mantra.. Fade the Politicians and bureaucrats 90 percent of the time, and you’ll be a head of the herd, comfortably positioned to watch the rest of the lemmings dive off the proverbial cliff, running from the CRISIS OF THE MOMENT.

As for the grains, If we get a dry spring, no doubt the farms will just take advantage of the weather and stay in fields planting til their hearts content. How can that be bullish for new crop corn and beans?

We continue to hear stories of farmers moving to more beans instead of corn. Maybe the farmers in the Dakotas are just sick of harvesting their corn through Christmas, New Years, the Super Bowl and then Spring Break.

They may have realized that if the US wheat continues to be $20 dollars a ton more expensive than the nearest competitor, maybe the solution is to let the rest of the world get rid of the extra 1 billion bushels sitting out there. If its cheaper to import wheat from Europe, maybe we will just take a break planting for a bit.

Not to mention the farmers in North Dakota who get dollar haircuts on their bushels of wheat due to protein restrictions. Farmers will plant only if they can make some money. The market will eventually address the supply demand issues on its own.

Just thank god we have the market’s and individual farmers determining what, where and how they will plant. All we need to ruin US agriculture would be a ‘planting czar’ to make those determinations.

I predict if food prices ever become expensive enough to be on the front page of local papers, Obama and his followers will gladly implement a “national food distribution plan’. After all, if health care is best regulated and implemented by the government, why stop there? Why not have government regulated food, education, youth soccer, ….if a little bit is good, wouldn’t more be better?

Maybe Lenin and Marx will have the last laugh after all.

That is all
Good Trading

Have a great weekend

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