Once again, doom and gloom

That’s it, the high is in, today’s 200 pt break is the beginning of the end. Fire and Brimstone, plague, disasters, tidal waves, cats and dogs living together… GOOD GOD these commentators make me want to scream. Every down move we have is broken down, “the biggest one day down move since…. fill in the flippin blank”. Bulls, you should be ecstatic. This is exactly the kind of panic reaction we need to keep this rally going.
I am more convinced than ever that we will see 11000 in the Dow and 1250 in the S&P in the next few weeks. Most likely after […]

Is 200 points a blip or the beginning of the correction?

The dollar went through the 78 level with a vengeance. Perhaps now we’ll see what really happens when the dollar carry trade winds out. I am not surprised that we had a bit of a pullback without first printing the 11000 in the Dow and at least 1250 in the SP500. It wouldn’t be the first time I got bullish at the top. However, a 200 point move lower is hardly anything to start freaking out about.
The Republican win, signaling a return to gridlock in Washington has to be a positive thing for the markets. I wouldn’t shift away from that choice until […]

11000 in the Dow, 1250 in the S&P, 78 in the dollar

I think we could see all three of those things this week. Certainly by the end of the month. The Republican win in Mass puts the kibosh on the run away liberal agenda presented when the President and both houses are all dominated by one party.
I further predict that the mid-term elections will have the Dems having their majority pared back. This is the beauty of our US democracy. No extreme agenda can take hold. We as a people like incremental change. President Reagan had dismal mid-term elections as well, losing 26 seats in the house. President Reagan was a very popular President, regardless […]

Monday MLK day, no trading

Today is our day off in honor of MLK. Tuesday through Friday, the stocks will focus on earnings. Since most companies have discounted so much already, which I wrote about before, I can’t see any surprises on the horizon except for surprises to the upside. No one wants to disappoint earnings, so they just lower the bar so low that an ant could jump it. After, all, we are still in a funk, with 10% unemployment, and the consumer starting to save more than spend more. In an economy driven for the past 20 years by the consumer, that could be a problem.

Despite that, […]

When will Washington bring back the WPA?

I just had a brief question for any of my readers out there who may care to respond.
I was checking the news wire tonight, and I read a story that politicians in Washington are going to create jobs…
If we go back in history, other than hiring workers to work for the government itself, or by adding to the military.
During the Great Depression of the 1930’s, the government went through a lot of efforts to stimulate employment.

What was the The Works Progress Administration (renamed during 1939 as the Work Projects Administration; WPA) was the largest New Deal agency, employing millions […]

When will the funds bail?

Going into Friday’s opening, we had some amazing news. Despite the limit down move in corn on Wednesday, after the USDA report, open interest actually grew… That suggests that despite the gap lower formations on the charts, that the funds are holding tight. Seeing that open interest grew between the 390 and 425 highs, you have to wonder at what point they will start to liquidate.

Goldman already came out with a rec to have their customers get out of their corn. The greatest, smartest, most well funded MBA, PhD masters of the universe and they got their clients long at the top, looking […]

Sometimes a down day is just a down day

It never ceases to amaze me the manic-depressive nature of financial news commentators. You can tell that most of them have never had a speculative or a hedge position EVER in any market by their demeanor. With the Dow at 10700, a 150 or even a 300 point correction is just that. A blip. I don’t know if these people ever took 5th grade math at all. There’s a relationship in the world called percentages which seems like a foreign language to these fear mongers. Simply put, a 100 point move when we were down at 6500 is more significant than when we are at […]

237 points away from 11,000

Won’t it be ironic when we see the Dow print 11,000. We got within 237 points from there today, climbing the wall of worry Bad news? Plenty of it, Dollar can’t get through the wall at 78 and looks like it wants to go down and re-test 74. China begins tightening the regs on their banks, earnings worries, mid-term election worries, worries about a populist President with a huge tax and spend agenda, all things which are fueling the market climbing the wall of worry.

What happens when we print 11,000 this month, and we most certainly will? To come within 237 points is […]

Funds are wrong, look out below

Goldman Sachs came out today and advised their clients to get out of their corn longs. All the money in the world, all the research in the world, all the smartest and the best and brightest and their vaunted research gets them chopped to bits just like any other speculator who is long and wrong. However, if the rest of these funds which got long between 390 and 425 decide to flip, we could have a ways to go on the down side. We may have to get a real flush downwards. Such a flush will weigh heavily on these grains. Tomorrow being Friday, I […]

Turn Around Tuesday in the Grain, and a wall of worry in the Stocks

The day after the announcement of the biggest corn crop in US growing history, this market found its legs, led by the most unlikely, soybeans. This in the midst of forecasts of smooth sailing in the production of the South American Beans. This is a year where so far, the fundamentals have been similar to what Ed Seykota deemed “funny mentals”. If the charts are to be believed, the soybean market is showing surprising bullishness in the face of fundamentals which suggest the bears should be ruling the day.

I learned a long time ago that when a market gets bad news and is able […]