Bearish Headlines equal opportunity

I awoke to the headline “stocks have worst month since feb 09”. Is that enough to get the sentiment bearish enough for a rally? I am not sure.
Let’s wait for next Friday’s Unemployment figure. Why not…? Everyone else is…
I still think we are on the precipice of either 1) a bounce back with a continuation in the 1-year rally we started ‘enjoying’ in March of 09. I put that in quotes b/c that rally was met with more pessimism than ants at a pic nick. As a whole, investors were 1) suspicious of the rally b/c it was relatively light volume, 2) […]

Last Day of the month, we may put in new lows then bounce

In the grains, it is the last day of the month. The trend in these grains is down, and typically we can see near term lows or highs at the end of months depending on the trend for that month.
With beans down 1.50 since the Jan 4th high, old crop corn down .70 cents and old crop wheat down 1.00, I’d say the trend is down.

We may get an blip down here today which may give a buying opportunity. As always, pick your spots, and have your stops.
It would be good for a bounce if we get some traction here. […]

744 points lower in just ten days?

Was this the correction we needed? All it took was some populist comments from President Obama, Ala Huey Newton in the 1930’s and we get a mini Russian Revolution?
Time will tell if this was the correction on the way to 11,500 or the beginning of the slide down to 1/2 way back of the last 11 month rally. The low in March 09 was 6440, The recent high was 10,767. 1/2 way back of that move is 8603. If you’ve read my blog for any length of time, you know I like the 1/2 way back trade.
So, if the wheels fall off […]

silver and gold melt as dollar rallies

As the dollar moves up towards the 79 -80 level, we are watching commodity prices move lower. The inverse relation ship continues.
Look for front month silver to test 15.80 and front month gold to test 1075.

Watch for an over reaction to the down side in the stocks, as the Dow flirts with a settlement below 10,000. Such a settlement would undoubtedly spark a new round of short selling.

Good Trading

Trenline support becomes trendline resistance

With our move below the 931 1/2 trend line in SH, moving down to a fresh multi-week low at 926, that trend line will magically become resistance. Look to sell that 930 level, risking 5 cents.
The charts look terrible, and the 908 level would open a test of the 900 and the 888 old Oct 09 low.
If China starts pulling its bids, with the restrictions on their banks over there, we could really see the air let out of these tires.
South America is into the teeth of its harvest and we could see further weakness through the next USDA number on March […]

931-1/2 in the March Beans

Pull up a daily chart for SH. Plot a trend line from the 3/3/2009 low at 805. A second point at the 10/06/2009 low at 888. Today’s trendline intersection of this 11-month trend line is signficant at 931 1/2. Look for a test, a good 5 to 13 cent bounce after the first test. If we go below it significantly, we should have selling pressure down to the 908 level.

Good Trading

930 is the long term trend line in SH

Did you buy against 930 today in SH? That was my idea yesterday. I can see us absolutely tearing through that level, however if it does not hold. Perhaps even a gap lower on an opening basis. That longer term, old low down at 887-884 looks like where we’ll find real value. And that level just might bring in some fresh shorts into the beans.
I still want to be bullish going into the State of the Union Address. The level of bearishness is palpable right now, and that can only mean a surprise short covering rally.
Obviously, you have to have protective sell stops […]

Bounce higher to punish the bears?

I like looking to be long the Dow and S&P going into and right after the State of the Union address. Everyone I know is looking for a negative reaction to the Speech. It seems that lately, every time the President speaks, its a free put option on the markets. I think this speech may be a buy the rumor, sell the fact opportunity. You can’t go wrong fading popular opinion, and the popular opinion has/or is shifting away from the hugely favorable ratings President Obama had enjoyed for the first year of his Presidency. I think it may be a matter of time before […]

Top Third Ag Marketing Hedging Program

If you are United States farmer and are not consistently marketing your grain and livestock in the top one-third of available prices during a marketing year, you need to come to topthird.com
Mark Gold is the brains behind the marketing plan at top third. I first met Mark in 1996 when I moved from the mid-am market into the “big room” at the CBOT. He was a broker/trader in the Soybean pit and one of the first guys who I became friends with in that Soybean Pit.
Luckily for me, Mark and I became friends, and he taught me many of the basic trading […]

1/2 way back is 8,600… yikes

I was bullish, I still am bullish, but today my stops saved me from myself. In fact, I was stopped out and then got net short and then put a buy stop in and then stopped watching the screen.
Was is the increased terror level? First coming out of India, then being raised in London?
Was is yesterday’s announcement by President Obama that he wants to curtail the trading ability of banks. No more speculation? Except, of course when they speculate on a mortgage, lol.
Now there is talk of getting rid of the Treasury Secretary and perhaps the Fed Chairman… I for one did […]