Stocks hold firm near their 14 month highs

Both stock indexes are holding firm today, with the S&P500 posting a fresh new 14 month high and the Dow within 80 points or so of its 14 month high at 10566.
Fundamentally, US stocks got some better news today, as existing home sales rose.
Time will tell, though if this is for real, or just a dead cat bounce. There is still an enormous supply of existing homes out there which have to be dealt with at some point.
To me this is looking like a potential exhaustion point for a housing bubble which took basically 3 years to sloooowly deflate. That being […]

Grains and Metals feel the wrath of the higher dollar

Late last night I posted a comment where I thought the beans might fall out of bed today, and test the 985 level. We did exactly that, and have now bounced 8 cents off that low and are currently at 993 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents on the day. Just last week we were at 1070, so we have broken almost a buck. I still like the 975 support as a place to step in and get long, but you have to have tight stops below to protect against a real flush down to the 955 area.
A lot of traders are banking on Jan […]

Dollar makes a new 3 month High, S&P posts new 14 Month High

In an interesting trade today, both the Dollar index and the stock indexes are moving higher. Conventional wisdom would suggest that there would be an inverse relationship between the two, however, conventional wisdom is just that. The fact is that cash S&P500 posted a new 14 month high this morning at 1,120.27. Its currently at 116.25, but the fact remains that traders went up and took out that old high at 119 which I wrote about last night. I think it was just too tempting a target. For one, there were undoubtedly some short covering stops up there. We took it out by a handle, […]

Stronger dollar punishes Beans and Wheat, while Corn is the bull side of those spreads

The stronger dollar is pushing the beans and the wheat lower. Technically, Jan beans today slid to an important number, testing the key 1000 a bushell level. I would be careful trying to step in and pick a bottom around here. Just 4 sessions ago, we were 70 cents higher. Have we come too far too fast? That’s any one’s guess. On the charts, there looks to be support around the 985 level, and then if the wheels really come off, there is support at the 970 and then the 950 strike prices. I am actually leaning towards the 970 level, since that would be […]

Monday’s Down, 3 Days til Christmas

SP500 cash posted a high today at 1117.68, just 2 handles away from its previous 14 month high at 1119.13. Looking at a weekly continuation chart, we are right where we were in September/October of 2008. The Dow Cash posted a high today at 10,458, just 108 points from its previous 14 month high at 10,566. I still feel that between now and the end of 2009, we will go after these highs, as I wrote this morning.
The dollar rally continues to be something which will weigh on that possibility, but we have held surprisingly tough in these stock indexes despite the rally in […]

Dollar Bounce, Metals Break in Teeter Totter Trade

The dollar bounced back from its earlier weakness and is now trading at 77.91. Feb gold has had a high today at 11208, a low at 11029 and is currently at 11031, -84 on the day. Feb silver has a high today at 17525, a low at 17120 and a last trade at 17130, -190….

In the grains, we have as anticipated, quiet mixed trade. SF has a high at 1018, a low at 1014 and a last trade at 1015, + 3 cents on the day. WH has a high at 529 1/4 , a low at 522 and a last trade at 525, […]

Here Comes Santa Clause

This morning, the dollar index is slightly lower, hanging around the 78 level. Dow cash and S&P cash are within a stone’s throw of their recent 9-month highs. Those high are 10566 in the Dow cash, and 1,119 in the S&P500 cash. Highs so far today are the Dow at 10430 and the S&P at 1,112.

I would keep an eye on those recent highs sitting above as targets.

The metals are higher as both Feb gold and Feb silver rally with the slight weakness in the US dollar. On a cautionary tone, I saw two or three articles this week talking about the […]

No Reason to Trade this Holiday Week

I will be doing a couple of updates this week. With Thursday being Christmas Eve Day, I can only advise all of you to trade as little as possible. There may be some action on the opens and the closes, but all in all, I would avoid these markets.

That being said, there are historical tendencies for stocks to rally. Even the clerk at the 7-11 has heard of the Santa Clause Rally, so beware being short this week.

Try as they might, the analysts and commentators on the cable business shows are going to fail to find interesting things to talk about. There really […]

Quadruple Witching had Heavy Volume as US traders shut down for the year

For all intents and purposes, this is looking like the final heavy volume day of the year for these stock indexes. We had our quadruple witching day, with not too much fireworks in reality. Traders tried to smack the indexes lower, with DJH re-testing the 10200 level, which is now a one month low. Its the 7th time we’ve tested 10200 in the last six weeks of trading. Very technical, as the computer worms searched for sell stops, but were unable to find them. DJH snapped back 70 ticks from its lows in the face of the shorts through the afternoon to settle just one […]

Metals and crude oil catch a bid, as Dollar moves slightly lower from its 3 month high at 78.14

The dollar index has backed off from its earlier 3 month high at 78.14, and is now trading just 8 ticks higher at 77.77. The metals rallied in sympathy with this break, along with crude oil, which was surprisingly bid this morning even in the face of the higher dollar.

Feb Gold had a high today at 1118.0 and a low at 1097.6 We are currently up 3.50 at 1110.9
March silver is up 115 at 17310, after posting a low at 17.110 with a high tick at 17.390.

Feb Crude is at 7441, up 33. It posted a low at 7355, and a […]