End of Year for Stocks, Gold and the Metals

Today’s shortened trading day has seen a little movement in the stock indexes, gold and silver and the crude oil contract. All in all with so few traders participating, its hard to get too enthused about any movement.
We are all waiting for next Friday’s Unemployment figure. The first Friday of every month gives us the data, that for better or worse, the whole trading world seems to look to at this point. I can remember back in 1982, 1983 when the number everyone was in love with was M1, or money supply. Today, however, its unemployment. And Next friday, Jan 8th, we will get […]

Final Day of 2009 Trading

I think I speak for all of us when I say that 2009 is a year we won’t soon forget. Rather than re-hash what we all lived through, I think its best we bid 2009 farewell and adieu.

Today trading is mixed, as was to be expected. I will write two summaries, beginning with the grain complex. And the second installment today will cover stocks, metals and the crude oil.

For now, lets look at the Jan beans. In my opinion, between the thousands of ten dollar calls which were exercised last Thursday, and the continued buying which is materializing, this very well could be […]

Higher Dollar Index give movement in Metals and Crude Oil

Today’s move in the dollar index, while not spectacular, is still bullish. DXY, the cash index, is holding up firmly here at the 78 level. So many articles have been written about the dollar carry trade, and so many people are looking for a bounce to the 80 to 81 level, we are most likely going to have to wait for the first two weeks of 2010 to see if the trade unfolds. Currently, the charts still look friendly, from a short to intermediate term continuation rally.

In the crude oil market, Feb Crude continues its 11-day trek higher, despite the higher dollar. This most […]

Holiday Volatility in the Grains and the power of the large funds

My earlier post mentioned the gap higher in the March corn. Nature hates a vacuum, so that gap was promptly filled today, as CH spiked down to 406, and then just as quickly punished new shorts and weak longs simultaneously, by quickly snapping back to the 415-416 level. Just one more case study of why this time of the year, trading, in a word, can be treacherous. Thin volume, little follow-through on moves, create a situation where trading can be like putting your hand in a garbage disposal or a blender…If you’re trying to grab the gold in the bottom, your timing has to be […]

Yesterday’s Dollar Rally had no effect on the beans

Jan Beans look strong, along with march corn, despite the rally in the dollar index up to the 78.00 level. March Wheat took it on the chin, however, with a high at 555 before melting 14 cents to the 540 level. The beans remain the stalwart, however. Speculation is it might be early fund buying, or it may be the unwinding of the shorts who had to deliver on those ten dollar Jan calls.
In any event, for a quiet holiday day, it was an interesting trade.
SF posted a low at 1020, a high at 1040 and settled at 1038. We have rallied from […]

From 6,440 to 10,585 The Mouse That Roared

Just looked at a quick daily chart of the Dow Jones Cash. Last March 2009, we traded to a low at 6,440. Our recent 14 month high, yesterday, Monday Dec 27th, was 10,585. A whopping 4,145 point move from low tick to high tick. Similarly, our low in the SP500 cash was a scary 666 last March… Today we traded up to 1,130 for a new 14 month high. 464 points. From the darkest depths of fear and loathing to today’s new highs.

You can make of it what you like. The first quarter will tell us volumes. If new money comes pouring into these […]

Metals take a breather, and Crude Slows its advance`

A continuation of the see saw trade between the dollar index, the metals and crude oil is what we are seeing today in these holiday markets.
The dollar index is up 20 or so tics today, flirting with the 78.00 level. In response, the metals both have moved lower, with March silver down 370 at 1719, and Feb Gold at 10998, -81. Feb crude oil is sitting at the 7885 level after posting a new high at 7938. Certainly the 80dollar level remains a target for the bulls with the crude oil.

As there are talks of more unrest in Iran, potentially 25 to 30 […]

Turn-Around-Tuesday Not showing up

Yesterday’s large rally in the grain complex, might have set us up for a bit of a correction today. This phenomenon is known as turn around Tuesday. Basically, its a tendency for the markets to give back a portion of a Monday move. Doesn’t matter if Monday’s move was sharply higher or lower, very often Tuesday, the day after, witnesses a mini-correction.
So far today we only have a good retracemnt in the March wheat. This morning WH opened at 553, its high of the day. WH then proceeded to dive down to 541 its low of the day and has now rebounded slightly to […]

Bounce not enough for the Bulls?

Six days ago, the Dow was at 10250, we are currently up around 10550. Six days ago cash S&P was at 1,095 and today we are around the 1,130 level. True, the Dow needs to get back to the 11000 or 12000 level to really constitute a comfortable rebound. The cash S&P needs to get to the 1200 or 1300 level to reach its old plateau.

However, considering where we were last March 2009, the rebound can only be called healthy. Along the way, the bears harped and fretted that “the rally wasn’t real” or “the rally won’t last”. etc. etc…..
But, true to from, […]

Bulls or Bears, there is a newsletter for your bent

Depending on you own psychological make up, you are more likely to be bullish or bearish. Its just a fact of life. And newspapers or newsletter services exist to tell people what they want to hear. That’s just a fact. For 25 years I read Barron’s covers. They were always bearish. Always writing about the deficit, federal or trade, it didn’t matter, it was the 7th sign of the Apocalypse. But they had their loyal readership
I always imagined a true Barron’s reader as some one living in a 3rd generation mansion in Conn some where. Barron’s was more about bond investing, and protecting […]