Turn Around Tuesday

Holding true to a very long-term pattern, today was Tuesday and after a large up move yesterday, we saw a slight turn around…Checking historical charts, on a daily basis, I am sure one could write a program to take advantage of this market trait..

In any event, we saw the market do a quick reversal, spurred mostly on by a bounce in the dollar…A correction in a slide which has seen the dollar drop more than 7 percent in value over the past 9 months. Perhaps the musings last week of Paul Volker, former head of fed in the 80’s, where he argued that rates […]

Dollar Bounce creates Oil Correction

Today we have seen the dollar continue to show strength over night and through today’s session… In direct response to that, we have seen Gold drop ten dollars off its high, and crude drop over two dollars from a high of 80.40, almost two dollars down 78.32… Time will tell if this is a pause to re-group for a blast higher, or perhaps we saw too steep of a move, with a 13 dollar jump in 17 days of trading…

I would personally look for a 6.50 cent pullback, or one half of the up move from 67 to 80… that would pin a pull […]

Crude Rallies 13 Bucks in 17 Days

We have seen top option Crude Futures rally 13 dollars in the last 17 days… From the 66 dollars a barrel level up to 80 dollars… On the daily charts, this looks too steep to maintain. That being said, however, the current rate of change may be sustainable until we get to some pricing level where demand slows.. Currently we here in Chicago are paying 266 plus a gallon for 87 octane…My guess is that we might spike to the 299 level around Thanksgiving, since that is typically a big driving weekend… At that point, at those levels, I would think that we would be […]

Bullish Pennant In November Beans

Looking at the daily charts this morning I noticed a potentially interesting formation…November beans posted their harvest lows, apparently, 11 trading days ago when we bounced off of the 884 level..

We then saw almost a 130 cent move to the recent highs, posted last Wednesday, when we approached the 1010 level…Currently if you look at the chart, the pennant formation, which looks like a right triangle if you draw the upper and lower resistance points, hence the name… Currently we are approaching the apex and a clear direction may emerge if we break above or below the trend lines bordering the pennant…

This […]

Crude Oil Leads through 80 bucks a barrell

Time for Maxine Waters to trot out hearings with the heads of all the US Oil companies and start making recommendations to follow Chavez and nationalize the oil business here in the US.. OH MY GOD, I am kidding for all you people out there who don’t get sarcasm…. As we head back up to 100 dollar a barrel oil, it will drag the rest of the commodities with it, as we saw today.

Even in the face of index fund selling in corn and wheat, while buying beans, the markets absorbed it and rallied in spite of it..
I warned about this that […]

Big Rally in Grains overnight

We had a screaming rally overnight led by the Soybeans…November contract was strong, rallying and settling ten cents higher, corn and wheat followed with corn up 3 cents and wheat up 7…

Bullish factors are 1) the weather forecasting more cold and wet over this week, which could further delay harvest and 2) higher moisture content in some of the corn which as been recently harvested which may impact quality and yield.. At this point the trade is looking for anything bullish and running with it.

Today being the 19th, the trade was anticipating index funds liquidating longs in corn and wheat and spreading […]

Range Trade on A Friday in the Grains

It looked like for a moment this morning we were going to bounce off the 977 level and take a run at last night’s highs at 996 half, however, right now it looks like we may be in a ten cent trading range, hanging fire until the last half hour of trade.Typically 11:30 to 12:30 CST is a bad time risk/reward to trade these grains…

A break out above or below this ten cent range could give an opportunity for an extended 8 or 10 cent move. It is Friday, the end of the week, and there may well be some evening up of positions […]

Friday Fun in Grains and Stock Indexes

Overnight we again saw how thin volume can lead to extreme volatility in the grain future market… Traders were able to run the SX up to the 996 1/2 level after a low down at 77..

It’s interesting that the overnight trade almost seems to have better directional stability than the day trade..Jumping on the direction in a momentum trade seems to be the way to go..Especially around 2 or 3 AM CST…Asian and European funds are in a position to run the grains anyway they want…

Wed night we saw a push down to the lows around 970, and last night we see a […]

Volatility Thursday

November beans settled 11 cents lower today at 983, Dec Corn ten cents lower at 373 and Dec Wheat 8 cents lower at 505… My earlier post today warned of choppy trade as these markets digested the large down moves which occurred during Wednesday’s night session.. All in all, there is still a Gap down at 968 which is a plump target for a bear flush…

They got within 3 cents but were unable to get the print out… That to me means its still a viable target over the next few trading sessions..
Dec Wheat will be most sensitive to any planting delays, if […]

Crude Oil Hanging Tough Above 75 Bucks

Today has seen some volatile trade in the Crude, as well as in the Dollar Index. Over night, we saw the grains make a run with almost a 30 cent break from 99 to 71, failing to fill the gap in SX down at 68… Looking at the charts, that looked like a downward spike in thin overnight trade…

There is currently some talk about rain delaying the farmers from getting the beans out of the fields…Also the trade is anticipating the Index Funds will be selling wheat and corn in response to CFTC position limits… Perhaps they will be buying beans as they […]